Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2020-06, Vol.102 (2), p.729-757
Main Authors: Orton, P. M., Conticello, F. R., Cioffi, F., Hall, T. M., Georgas, N., Lall, U., Blumberg, A. F., MacManus, K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Channel flow
Civil Engineering
Climate
Climatology
Computer simulation
Cyclones
Dynamics
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental Management
Environmental risk
Estuaries
Estuarine dynamics
Extratropical cyclones
Extreme weather
Flood hazards
Flood insurance
Flood risk
Flooding
Floods
Friction resistance
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hazard assessment
Hurricanes
Hydrodynamic models
Hydrodynamics
Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
Natural Hazards
Offshore
Original Paper
Probability theory
Rain
Rainfall
Rivers
Sea level
Sea level rise
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Statistical analysis
Stochasticity
Storm surges
Storm tides
Storms
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Surface temperature
Three dimensional models
Tidal rivers
Tides
Tributaries
Tropical cyclones
Water depth
Water levels
Water resistance
Watersheds
Wind speed
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Summary:Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland “wet extratropical” cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931–2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by ~ 30–60% at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3251-x