Judgement and choice in the 1999 South African election

In this article, we set out the basic points of the theoretical framework of voter choice that underlie the Opinion '99 research project. In contrast to prevailing theories that have characterized voter choice in South Africa as an ethnic or racial census, this approach emphasizes the role of h...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Politikon 1999-11, Vol.26 (2), p.235-247
Main Authors: Mattes, Robert, Taylor, Helen, Africa, Cherrel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Elections
Parliamentary elections
Political attitudes
Political participation
Political socialization
Political systems
South Africa
Voters
Voting behaviour
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Summary:In this article, we set out the basic points of the theoretical framework of voter choice that underlie the Opinion '99 research project. In contrast to prevailing theories that have characterized voter choice in South Africa as an ethnic or racial census, this approach emphasizes the role of how voters learn about government performance and the alternatives offered by opposition parties. We then deduce a very simplified model that consciously excludes all 'structural' variables and includes only measures of voter evaluations of government performance and views of political parties and candidates. We use discriminant analysis (DA) to predict the partisan preferences of respondents from a nationally representative September 1998 survey with these measures. We find that the partisan choices of a very large majority of South Africans can be correctly predicted with this model.
ISSN:0258-9346
1470-1014
DOI:10.1080/02589349908705084