Spatial-temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hubei Province, China, 2011-2021

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is an infectious disease of major public health problem, China is one of the PTB high burden counties in the word. Hubei is one of the provinces having the highest notification rate of tuberculosis in China. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution chara...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	PloS one 2023-02, Vol.18 (2), p.e0281479-e0281479
Main Authors:	Zhang, Yu, Ye, Jianjun, Hou, Shuangyi, Lu, Xingxing, Yang, Chengfeng, Pi, Qi, Zhang, Mengxian, Liu, Xun, Da, Qin, Zhou, Liping
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Analysis China - epidemiology Cluster Analysis Clustering Communicable diseases Computer and Information Sciences Data base management systems Diagnosis Disease control Disease prevention Distribution Earth Sciences Epidemics Epidemiology Geospatial data Humans Incidence Infectious diseases Information management Medical diagnosis Medicine and Health Sciences Monte Carlo simulation People and Places Physical Sciences Population Public health Pulmonary tuberculosis Research and Analysis Methods Seasonal variations Social Sciences Software Spacetime Spatial Analysis Spatial distribution Spatio-Temporal Analysis Statistical significance Statistics Tuberculosis Tuberculosis - epidemiology Tuberculosis, Pulmonary - epidemiology
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Summary:	Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is an infectious disease of major public health problem, China is one of the PTB high burden counties in the word. Hubei is one of the provinces having the highest notification rate of tuberculosis in China. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PTB in Hubei province for targeted intervention on TB epidemics. The data on PTB cases were extracted from the National Tuberculosis Information Management System correspond to population in 103 counties of Hubei Province from 2011 to 2021. The effect of PTB control was measured by variation trend of bacteriologically confirmed PTB notification rate and total PTB notification rate. Time series, spatial autonomic correlation and spatial-temporal scanning methods were used to identify the temporal trends and spatial patterns at county level of Hubei. A total of 436,955 cases were included in this study. The total PTB notification rate decreased significantly from 81.66 per 100,000 population in 2011 to 52.25 per 100,000 population in 2021. The peak of PTB notification occurred in late spring and early summer annually. This disease was spatially clustering with Global Moran's I values ranged from 0.34 to 0.63 (P< 0.01). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the hot spots are mainly distributed in the southwest and southeast of Hubei Province. Using the SaTScan 10.0.2 software, results from the staged spatial-temporal analysis identified sixteen clusters. This study identified seasonal patterns and spatial-temporal clusters of PTB cases in Hubei province. High-risk areas in southwestern Hubei still exist, and need to focus on and take targeted control and prevention measures.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203