How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Deve...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2022-07, Vol.17 (7), p.e0270846
Main Authors: Moyer, Jonathan D, Verhagen, Willem, Mapes, Brendan, Bohl, David K, Xiong, Yutang, Yang, Vivian, McNeil, Kaylin, Solórzano, José, Irfan, Mohammod, Carter, Cade, Hughes, Barry B
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Consumption
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Economic aspects
Economic development
Economic growth
Economic models
Forecasts and trends
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Income distribution
Income inequality
Labor market
Medicine and Health Sciences
Pandemics
Population
Poverty
Remittances
Social Sciences
Sustainable development
Working hours
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Summary:The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the No COVID scenario), the COVID Base scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The COVID Base results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a No COVID scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a No COVID scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0270846