The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection?

Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2022-01, Vol.17 (1), p.e0262473
Main Authors: Pereira da Silva, Arlindo Ananias, Franquelino, Adriano Roberto, Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo, Montanari, Rafael, Faria, Glaucia Amorim, Ribeiro da Silva, Cristóvão Henrique, Bortoloto da Silva, Dayane, Júnior, Walter Aparecido Ribeiro, Muchalak, Franciele, Cruz Souza, Kassia Maria, Prudencio da Silva, Marcos Henrique, Teodoro, Larissa Pereira Ribeiro
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agronomy
Autoregressive models
Biodiversity
Biology and Life Sciences
Brazil
Brazil - epidemiology
Cluster analysis
Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data
Conservation of Natural Resources - trends
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Deforestation
Dengue
Dengue - epidemiology
Dengue - etiology
Dengue fever
Dengue Virus - pathogenicity
Deregulation
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Ecosystem
Ecosystems
Environment
Environmental aspects
Fever
Forecasting
Generalized linear models
Grasslands
Health aspects
Humans
Incidence
Infections
Infectious diseases
Inhabitants
Medicine and Health Sciences
People and places
Physical Sciences
Prevention
Public health
Research and Analysis Methods
Savannahs
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Tropical diseases
Vector-borne diseases
Vegetation
Writing
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Summary:Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0262473