The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking

Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-06, Vol.16 (6), p.e0248215
Main Authors: Sánchez-Romero, Luz María, Zavala-Arciniega, Luis, Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam, de Miera-Juárez, Belén Sáenz, Yuan, Zhe, Li, Yameng, Lau, Yan Kwan, Fleischer, Nancy L, Meza, Rafael, Thrasher, James F, Levy, David T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Access control
Age groups
Bans
Biology and Life Sciences
Cancer
Causality
Cigarette smoking
Cigarette Smoking - adverse effects
Cigarette Smoking - prevention & control
Cigarette Smoking - trends
Cigarettes
Computer Simulation
Data analysis
Editing
Epidemiology
Evaluation
Health Policy - legislation & jurisprudence
Health promotion
Humans
Laws, regulations and rules
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mexico
Nicotiana - adverse effects
People and places
Policies
Population growth
Prevalence
Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)
Public health
Public Policy - legislation & jurisprudence
Reviews
Sensitivity analysis
Simulation methods
Smoke
Smokers - psychology
Smoking
Smoking Cessation - statistics & numerical data
Smoking Prevention - methods
Smoking Prevention - trends
Social Sciences
Taxation
Tobacco
Tobacco Products - adverse effects
Tobacco Use - prevention & control
Tobacco Use - trends
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Summary:Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico. A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels. Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending. Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0248215