A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation

In the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models, we use a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation strategies. We derive rather general conditions for reaching herd immunity while minimizing the costs incurred by the introduction of societal control...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-02, Vol.16 (2), p.e0247445-e0247445
Main Authors: Godara, Prakhar, Herminghaus, Stephan, Heidemann, Knut M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Biology and Life Sciences
Communicable Disease Control - methods
Computer and Information Sciences
Containment
Control
Control theory
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Drafting software
Editing
Engineering and Technology
Epidemics
Game Theory
Germany
Herd immunity
Humans
Immunity, Herd
Impact analysis
Infections
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methodology
Mitigation
Optimal control
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Physical Sciences
Population
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Society
Viral diseases
Viruses
Visualization
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Summary:In the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models, we use a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation strategies. We derive rather general conditions for reaching herd immunity while minimizing the costs incurred by the introduction of societal control measures (such as closing schools, social distancing, lockdowns, etc.), under the constraint that the infected fraction of the population does never exceed a certain maximum corresponding to public health system capacity. Optimality is derived and verified by variational and numerical methods for a number of model cost functions. The effects of immune response decay after recovery are taken into account and discussed in terms of the feasibility of strategies based on herd immunity.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0247445