The introduction of dengue follows transportation infrastructure changes in the state of Acre, Brazil: A network-based analysis

Human mobility, presence and passive transportation of Aedes aegypti mosquito, and environmental characteristics are a group of factors which contribute to the success of dengue spread and establishment. To understand this process, we assess data from dengue national and municipal basins regarding p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2017-11, Vol.11 (11), p.e0006070
Main Authors: Lana, Raquel Martins, Gomes, Marcelo Ferreira da Costa, Lima, Tiago França Melo de, Honório, Nildimar Alves, Codeço, Cláudia Torres
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aedes aegypti
Aquatic insects
Basins
Biology and Life Sciences
Care and treatment
Computer and Information Sciences
Demographics
Demography
Dengue
Dengue fever
Disease
Earth Sciences
Engineering and Technology
Environmental monitoring
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Frameworks
Genetic engineering
Human diseases
Importation
Infrastructure
Insect control
Malaria
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mobility
Mosquitoes
Municipalities
People and places
Population growth
Probability theory
Regeneration
Risk assessment
Social Sciences
Software
Transmission
Transportation
Transportation engineering
Tropical diseases
Urbanization
Vector-borne diseases
Viral diseases
Viruses
Vulnerability
Yellow fever mosquito
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Description
Summary:Human mobility, presence and passive transportation of Aedes aegypti mosquito, and environmental characteristics are a group of factors which contribute to the success of dengue spread and establishment. To understand this process, we assess data from dengue national and municipal basins regarding population and demographics, transportation network, human mobility, and Ae. aegypti monitoring for the Brazilian state of Acre since the first recorded dengue case in the year 2000 to the year 2015. During this period, several changes in Acre's transport infrastructure and urbanization have been started. To reconstruct the process of dengue introduction in Acre, we propose an analytic framework based on concepts used in malaria literature, namely vulnerability and receptivity, to inform risk assessments in dengue-free regions as well as network theory concepts for disease invasion and propagation. We calculate the probability of dengue importation to Acre from other Brazilian states, the evolution of dengue spread between Acrean municipalities and dengue establishment in the state. Our findings suggest that the landscape changes associated with human mobility have created favorable conditions for the establishment of dengue virus transmission in Acre. The revitalization of its major roads, as well as the increased accessibility by air to and within the state, have increased dengue vulnerability. Unplanned urbanization and population growth, as observed in Acre during the period of study, contribute to ideal conditions for Ae. aegypti mosquito establishment, increase the difficulty in mosquito control and consequently its local receptivity.
ISSN:1935-2735
1935-2727
1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006070