The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy

Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the hig...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2016-04, Vol.11 (4), p.e0154018-e0154018
Main Authors: Marini, Giovanni, Poletti, Piero, Giacobini, Mario, Pugliese, Andrea, Merler, Stefano, Rosà, Roberto
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abundance
Adults
Aedes albopictus
Analysis
Animals
Annual variations
Anopheles
Aquatic insects
Biodiversity
Biology and Life Sciences
Breeding
Breeding seasons
Carrying capacity
Causes of
Climate
Computer simulation
Culex
Culex - physiology
Culex - virology
Culex pipiens
Culicidae
Demographic aspects
Density
Diptera
Earth Sciences
Ecology
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Health aspects
High temperature
Insect Vectors
Italy
Markov chains
Medicine and Health Sciences
Monte Carlo methods
Mortality
Mosquitoes
Oceanography
People and Places
Physical sciences
Population
Population biology
Population Dynamics
Population number
Precipitation
Research and analysis methods
Seasons
Stochastic models
Stochasticity
Temperature
Temperature dependence
Temperature effects
Tropical diseases
Viruses
Weather forecasting
West Nile fever
West Nile Fever - transmission
West Nile virus
West Nile virus - isolation & purification
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Summary:Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density-dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0154018