On the maximum likelihood duty cycle of an appliance and its validation

A physically based load model that incorporates the effects of random variations of load behavior is used to derive the probability density function (PDF) of the duty cycle of a residential thermostat-controlled heating unit. The PDF of the duty cycle is a function of the house parameters, outside t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	IEEE transactions on power systems 1992-02, Vol.7 (1), p.228-235
Main Authors:	Noureddine, A.H., Alouani, A.T., Chandrasekaran, A.
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Applied sciences Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering Electrical power engineering Engineering Engineering, Electrical & Electronic Exact sciences and technology Heat pumps Home appliances Load flow control Load modeling Maximum likelihood estimation Operation. Load control. Reliability Power networks and lines Power system modeling Predictive models Probability density function Science & Technology Space heating Technology Weather forecasting
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Summary:	A physically based load model that incorporates the effects of random variations of load behavior is used to derive the probability density function (PDF) of the duty cycle of a residential thermostat-controlled heating unit. The PDF of the duty cycle is a function of the house parameters, outside temperature, and the statistics of random influences on the load. From the PDF, the maximum likelihood estimate of the duty cycle is deduced numerically. Simulations using real data were carried out to assess the influence of the temperature gradient, appliance rating, and the random disturbance. Two households were selected for verifying the maximum-likelihood duty cycle prediction of heat pumps during winter. Very good correlation exists between the prediction and measurement.< >
ISSN:	0885-8950 1558-0679