Stochastic prediction of voltage sags by considering the probability of the failure of the protection system

This paper presents a comprehensive method for stochastic prediction of the number and characteristics of voltage sags in large distribution networks. The novelty of the proposed approach is in probabilistic modeling of the failure of the protection system. The probability of the failure of the prot...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on power delivery 2006-01, Vol.21 (1), p.322-329
Main Authors: Myo Thu Aung, Milanovic, J.V.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Assessments
Computer simulation
Computerized monitoring
Decision trees
Disturbances. Regulation. Protection
Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering
Electrical power engineering
Exact sciences and technology
Failure
Fault location
Fault tree method
Mathematical models
Power networks and lines
Power quality
Power system modeling
Power system protection
Power system reliability
Probability theory
Protection systems
stochastic assessment
Stochastic processes
Stochastic systems
Stochasticity
Voltage fluctuations
Voltage sags
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Summary:This paper presents a comprehensive method for stochastic prediction of the number and characteristics of voltage sags in large distribution networks. The novelty of the proposed approach is in probabilistic modeling of the failure of the protection system. The probability of the failure of the protection system is determined using a straightforward, decision tree based method. The paper highlights the effects of the protection system failure on the number and characteristics of voltage sags. The method proposed and its capabilities are demonstrated on the realistic size generic distribution system. The results presented in the paper show that the proposed method is superior to the traditional techniques used for the assessment of voltage sags as it results in higher accuracy of the prediction of the number and characteristics of voltage sags.
ISSN:0885-8977
1937-4208
DOI:10.1109/TPWRD.2005.852385