Hazard function exploration of tokamak tearing mode stability boundaries

•First large-scale database analysis of tokamak tearing mode onset intensities.•Hazard functions are tested for and shown to be statistically calibrated.•Plausible physical trends can be extracted using partial dependencies. The technical feasibility of hazard function learning and exploration on mu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Fusion engineering and design 2019-09, Vol.146 (PB), p.1476-1479
Main Authors:	Olofsson, K.E.J., Sammuli, B.S., Humphreys, D.A.
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Dependence Exploration Plasma Plasma equilibrium Rotating plasmas Statistical learning Tearing Tokamak devices Tokamaks
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	•First large-scale database analysis of tokamak tearing mode onset intensities.•Hazard functions are tested for and shown to be statistically calibrated.•Plausible physical trends can be extracted using partial dependencies. The technical feasibility of hazard function learning and exploration on multi-scenario tokamak plasma time-series datasets is demonstrated. In particular, the onset intensity (events per time) of born-rotating tearing mode instabilities in DIII-D tokamak plasmas is modeled as a function (the hazard) of gross plasma equilibrium covariates. It is shown that the hazard function is calibrated in a precise probabilistic sense. Partial dependence visualizations of this function suggest that the approach can be developed into powerful tokamak database query software geared towards physics discovery.
ISSN:	0920-3796 1873-7196