Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2009-11, Vol.106 (Supplement 2), p.19685-19692
Main Authors: Jackson, Stephen T, Betancourt, Julio L, Booth, Robert K, Gray, Stephen T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Biogeography
Climate Change
Climate models
Colloquium Papers
Drought
Ecological history
Ecological modeling
Ecological niches
Ecology
Ecosystem
Ecosystems
Habitats
Models, Biological
Paleoclimatology
Population ecology
Species
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Summary:Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0901644106