Analysis of past and future continental crash mortality rates employing long-term data

The global and continental crash death rate trends, adjusted for under-reporting, death definition, and missing data, are analyzed, modelled, and compared with international findings considering data for 215 countries for 35 years. Although global reported mortality rates required 25% to 44% adjustm...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Journal of transportation safety & security 2019-09, Vol.11 (5), p.464-490
Main Author:	Al-Madani, Hashim M. N.
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	continent crash adjustment factors crash mortality rate death definition Fatalities Missing data Mortality Traffic accidents & safety Traffic planning Traffic safety Trends under-reporting Vehicles
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	The global and continental crash death rate trends, adjusted for under-reporting, death definition, and missing data, are analyzed, modelled, and compared with international findings considering data for 215 countries for 35 years. Although global reported mortality rates required 25% to 44% adjustments, that estimated by World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank showed far greater rates. The model developed for global mortality rates per population though indicates a peak threshold, the current rate is expected to continue for some years before descending. In contradiction with WHO, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), and World Bank (WB), the model indicates a drop of 22% in mortality rate by 2025. The rate for Europe, Oceania, and Asia drop to one eighth, one half, and one sixth, respectively. The rates for Africa doesn't change, and that for South America increases by 15%. The current global mortality per 10,000 vehicles drops exponentially by 38% toward 2025. The mortality rate per 10,000 vehicles for the various continents are expected to drop by 34% to 68%. The earlier rates showed a much faster drop than that per population. The observant reason could be the faster vehicle growth compared with population. The findings call for extensive traffic safety plans and tense implementation efforts in Africa, South America, and Asia to have faster global descending trends in mortality rates. More research that considers under-reporting of fatalities is necessary.
ISSN:	1943-9962 1943-9970