Impulse response of a linear diffusion analogy model as a flood frequency probability density function

The impulse response of a linear convective-diffusion analogy (LD) model used for flow routing in open channels is proposed as a probability distribution for flood frequency analysis. The flood frequency model has two parameters, which are derived using the methods of moments and maximum likelihood....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Hydrological sciences journal 2001-10, Vol.46 (5), p.761-780
Main Authors:	STRUPCZEWSKI, WITOLD G., SINGH, VIJAY P., WEGLARCZYK, STANISLAW
Format:	Article
Language:	eng ; fre
Subjects:	Diffusion diffusion model distribution de probabilité Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics Environment erreur standard Exact sciences and technology flood frequency Floods fréquence de crue Hydrology Hydrology. Hydrogeology lognormal lognormal model Mathematical models maximum de vraisemblance maximum likelihood method of moments modèle de diffusion moments méthode des moments Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc Poland Pologne probability distribution quantiles Rivers standard error statistical tests séries temporelles tests statistiques time series
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Summary:	The impulse response of a linear convective-diffusion analogy (LD) model used for flow routing in open channels is proposed as a probability distribution for flood frequency analysis. The flood frequency model has two parameters, which are derived using the methods of moments and maximum likelihood. Also derived are errors in quantiles for these parameter estimation methods. The distribution shows that the two methods are equivalent in terms of producing mean values-the important property in case of unknown true distribution function. The flood frequency model is tested using annual peak discharges for the gauging sections of 39 Polish rivers where the average value of the ratio of the coefficient of skewness to the coefficient of variation equals about 2.52, a value closer to the ratio of the LD model than to the gamma or the lognormal model. The likelihood ratio indicates the preference of the LD over the lognormal for 27 out of 39 cases. It is found that the proposed flood frequency model represents flood frequency characteristics well (measured by the moment ratio) when the LD flood routing model is likely to be the best of all linear flow routing models.
ISSN:	0262-6667 2150-3435