Critical Review of Data, Models and Performance Metrics for Wind and Solar Power Forecast

Global climatic changes and increased carbon footprints provided the main impetus for the decrease in the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation and transportation. Matured manufacturing technologies of solar PV panels and on-shore and off-shore windmills have brought down the cost of genera...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE access 2022-01, Vol.10, p.667-688
Main Authors: Prema, V., Bhaskar, M. S., Almakhles, Dhafer, Gowtham, N., Rao, K. Uma
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alternative energy sources
Biological system modeling
Data models
Distributed generation
forecast models
Forecast techniques
Fossil fuels
Mathematical models
Meteorological data
Performance indices
Performance measurement
Photovoltaic cells
Prediction models
Predictive models
Renewable energy sources
Solar energy
solar power
Solar power generation
Wind energy
Wind forecasting
wind power
Wind power generation
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Summary:Global climatic changes and increased carbon footprints provided the main impetus for the decrease in the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation and transportation. Matured manufacturing technologies of solar PV panels and on-shore and off-shore windmills have brought down the cost of generation of electricity using solar energy on par with conventional fossil fuel. Initially, solar and wind power generation was envisioned for microgrids, serving small local communities. However, advancements in power electronics have now facilitated large solar and wind farms to be integrated with main power grids. In this context, hosting capacity, which is the amount of distributed energy resources a grid can accommodate, without significant infrastructure up-gradation, has gained importance. In determining the hosting capacity at a particular location, the uncertainties of wind and solar power generation play a role. Effective forecasting models using time-series weather data can be built to predict wind and solar power generation. This forecast is essential to ensure proper grid operation and control when renewable energy sources are already installed. The forecast is also useful in the planning stages for investment decisions and distribution system planning. While long-term forecasts are rarely needed for the operation of integrated grids, accurate short-term predictive models are necessary for scheduling. This paper presents an extensive review of various forecast models available in the literature. The study mainly focuses on the short-term forecast, providing a critical review of the duration of data used in each model and a synoptic comparison of their performance indices.
ISSN:2169-3536
2169-3536
DOI:10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3137419