Quickest Detection and Forecast of Pandemic Outbreaks: Analysis of COVID-19 Waves

The COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the out...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE communications magazine 2021-09, Vol.59 (9), p.16-22
Main Authors: Soldi, Giovanni, Forti, Nicola, Gaglione, Domenico, Braca, Paolo, Millefiori, Leonardo M., Marano, Stefano, Willett, Peter K., Pattipati, Krishna R.
Format: Magazinearticle
Language:English
Subjects:
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Human factors
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Predictive models
Reliability engineering
Signal processing
Social factors
Viral diseases
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Summary:The COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the outbreak of the new pandemic's waves. In this article, we propose an integrated detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data, is designed to: learn relevant features of the pandemic (e.g., the infection rate); detect as quickly as possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the contagion; and reliably forecast the pandemic evolution. The proposed solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the United States.
ISSN:0163-6804
1558-1896
DOI:10.1109/MCOM.101.2001252