Addressing the impact of canine distemper spreading on an isolated tiger population in northeast Asia

The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China–Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, whic...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Integrative zoology 2023-11, Vol.18 (6), p.994-1008
Main Authors: WANG, Dawei, SMITH, James L. D., ACCATINO, Francesco, GE, Jianping, WANG, Tianming
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Amur tiger
Animal populations
Canine distemper
canine distemper virus
Domestic animals
Endangered species
Environmental Sciences
Epidemic models
Epidemiology
habitat connectivity
Habitats
Humanities and Social Sciences
Inbreeding
Inbreeding depression
metamodel
Panthera tigris altaica
Population
Population decline
Population number
Population viability
population viability analysis (PVA)
Probability theory
Protected areas
Species extinction
Viruses
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Summary:The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China–Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, which consists of a traditional individual‐based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model, to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas, increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population (including more than 400 individuals), and habitat expansion. Without intervention, under inbreeding depression of 3.14, 6.29, and 12.26 lethal equivalents, our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%, 90.6%, and 99.8%, respectively. In addition, the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years, and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining. However, when the above three conservation scenarios are combined, even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression, population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be
ISSN:1749-4877
1749-4869
1749-4868
1749-4877
DOI:10.1111/1749-4877.12712