Field models for the prediction of leaf infection and latent period of Fusicladium oleagineum on olive based on rain, temperature and relative humidity

Although much is known about the effect of climatic conditions on the development of peacock leaf spot of olive, field‐operational models predicting disease outbreaks are lacking. With the aim of developing such models, a 10‐year survey was conducted to relate leaf infection to climate parameters th...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Plant pathology 2013-06, Vol.62 (3), p.657-666
Main Authors: Roubal, C., Regis, S., Nicot, P. C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological and medical sciences
decision support system
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
integrated pest management
Life Sciences
Microbiology and Parasitology
Mycology
Olea
Olea europaea
Phytopathology and phytopharmacy
Phytopathology. Animal pests. Plant and forest protection
Vegetal Biology
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Although much is known about the effect of climatic conditions on the development of peacock leaf spot of olive, field‐operational models predicting disease outbreaks are lacking. With the aim of developing such models, a 10‐year survey was conducted to relate leaf infection to climate parameters that can be easily monitored in the field. As outbreaks of disease are known to be linked to rain, models were evaluated for their ability to predict whether infection would occur following a rain event, depending on air temperature and duration of relative humidity above 85%. A total of 134 rain events followed by confirmed leaf infection and 191 rain events not followed by detectable infection were examined. The field data were adequately fitted (both specificity and sensitivity >0·97) with either a multilayer neural network or with two of six tested regression models describing high boundary values of high humidity duration, above which no infection occurred over the temperature range, and low boundary values below which no infection occurred. The data also allowed the selection of a model successfully relating the duration of latent period (time between infection and the first detection of leaf spots) as a function of air temperature after the beginning of rain (R2 > 0·98). The predictive abilities of these models were confirmed during 2 years of testing in commercial olive orchards in southern France. They should thus provide useful forecasting tools for the rational application of treatments and foster a reduction in fungicide use against this major disease of olive.
ISSN:0032-0862
1365-3059
DOI:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2012.02666.x