Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (207...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Climatic change 2013-02, Vol.116 (3-4), p.679-692
Main Authors:	Lemonsu, Aude, Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaëlle, Desplat, Julien, Salagnac, Jean-Luc, Masson, Valéry
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Atmospheric Sciences Bgi / Prodig Cities Climate Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climatology Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Cooling Demand Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space Environmental impact Environmental Sciences Evolution Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Global Changes Heating Humidity Local climates and microclimates Marketing Meteorology Parametrization Physical geography Principal components analysis Sciences of the Universe Simulation Temperature Temperature effects Trends Urban areas Urban heat islands Variables
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Summary:	The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches + 2.0/2.4°C in winter and + 3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating.
ISSN:	0165-0009 1573-1480