Production of Pig Feed under Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations: Changes in Crop Content and Chemical Composition, Land Use, Environmental Impact, and Socio-Economic Consequences

With the rising atmospheric CO2, crops will assimilate more carbon. Yields will increase in terms of carbohydrates while diluting the content of protein and minerals in compound pig feed, calling for an altered formulation with more protein and less carbohydrate crops to maintain its nutritional val...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2018-09, Vol.10 (9), p.3184
Main Authors: Saxe, Henrik, Hamelin, Lorie, Hinrichsen, Torben, Wenzel, Henrik
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural economics
Amino acid composition
Biotechnology
Carbohydrates
Carbon dioxide
Chemical composition
Chloride channels (calcium-gated)
Crop yield
Crops
Economic models
Feed formulation
Impact analysis
Land use
Life Sciences
Minerals
Organic chemistry
Proteins
Socioeconomics
Sustainability
Wheat
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Summary:With the rising atmospheric CO2, crops will assimilate more carbon. Yields will increase in terms of carbohydrates while diluting the content of protein and minerals in compound pig feed, calling for an altered formulation with more protein and less carbohydrate crops to maintain its nutritional value. Using crop response data from CO2 exposures in a linear modeling of feed formulation, we apply a consequential life cycle assessment (cLCA) to model all of the environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences that altered crop yields and chemical composition at elevated CO2 levels have on feed formulation, targeting altered amino acid contents rather than overall protein. An atmospheric CO2 of 550 µmole mole−1 gives rise to a 6% smaller demand for land use for pig feed production. However, feed produced at this CO2 must include 23% more soymeal and 5% less wheat than at present in order to keep its nutritional value. This counteracts the yield benefit. The monetized environmental cost of producing pig feed, where sunflower and soy contribute the most, equals the direct feed price in both scenarios. If external costs were internalized, honoring the Rio Declaration, feed prices would double. In contrast, the future composition of pig feed will increase the direct price by only 0.8%, while the external cost decreases by only 0.3%.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su10093184