Goal Tree Success Tree–Dynamic Master Logic Diagram and Monte Carlo simulation for the safety and resilience assessment of a multistate system of systems

•We analyze the safety and the resilience of a NPP exposed to risk from earthquakes.•We consider a system-of-systems framework.•We adopt a multistate representation of the different degrees of safety of the NPP.•We develop a GTST–DMLD to represent the system of systems.•We use Monte Carlo simulation...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Engineering structures 2014-02, Vol.59, p.411-433
Main Authors: Ferrario, E., Zio, E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Buildings. Public works
Computation methods. Tables. Charts
Computer simulation
Engineering Sciences
Exact sciences and technology
Geotechnics
Goal Tree Success Tree–Dynamic Master Logic Diagram
Monte Carlo methods
Monte Carlo simulation
Multistate model
Nuclear engineering
Nuclear power generation
Nuclear power plants (construction and construction safety)
Nuclear safety
Physical resilience
Power plants
Resilience
Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Stresses. Safety
Structural analysis. Stresses
Structure-soil interaction
System of systems
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Summary:•We analyze the safety and the resilience of a NPP exposed to risk from earthquakes.•We consider a system-of-systems framework.•We adopt a multistate representation of the different degrees of safety of the NPP.•We develop a GTST–DMLD to represent the system of systems.•We use Monte Carlo simulation for the quantitative evaluation of the model. We extend a system-of-systems framework previously proposed by the authors to evaluate the safety and physical resilience of a critical plant exposed to risk of external events. The extension is based on a multistate representation of the different degrees of damage of the individual components and the different degrees of safety of the critical plant. We resort to a hierarchical model representation by Goal Tree Success Tree–Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (GTST–DMLD), adapting it to the framework of analysis proposed. We perform the quantitative evaluation of the model by Monte Carlo simulation. To the best of the author’s knowledge this is the first time that a multistate framework of combined safety and resilience analysis relating the structural and functional behaviour of the components to the system function in a GTST–DMLD logic modelling of a system of systems is adopted in Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a case study that considers the impacts produced by an earthquake and its aftershocks (the external events) on a nuclear power plant (the critical plant) embedded in the connected power and water distribution, and transportation networks which support its operation.
ISSN:0141-0296
1873-7323
DOI:10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.11.001