Unnatural deaths, alcohol bans and curfews: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment during COVID-19

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) restrictions, particularly relating to the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew, have had a marked effect on the temporal pattern of unnatural deaths in South Africa.Death data were collected over 68 weeks from January 2020 to April 2021, together with information on...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:South African medical journal 2021-09, Vol.111 (9), p.834-837
Main Authors: Moultrie, T A, Dorrington, R E, Laubscher, R, Groenewald, P, Parry, C D H, Matzopoulos, R, Bradshaw, D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Drinking of alcoholic beverages
Epidemics
Forecasts and trends
Mortality
South Africa
Statistics
Citations: Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) restrictions, particularly relating to the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew, have had a marked effect on the temporal pattern of unnatural deaths in South Africa.Death data were collected over 68 weeks from January 2020 to April 2021, together with information on the nature of restrictions (if any) on the sale of alcohol, and hours of curfew. Data were analysed using a simple ordinary least square (OLS) regression model to estimate the relative contribution of restrictions on the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew to the pattern of excess unnatural deaths.The complete restriction on the sale of alcohol resulted in a statistically significant reduction in unnatural deaths regardless of the length of curfew. To the contrary, periods where no or limited restrictions on alcohol were in force had no significant effect, or resulted in significantly increased unnatural deaths.The present study highlights an association between alcohol availability and the number of unnatural deaths and demonstrates the extent to which those deaths might be averted by disrupting the alcohol supply. While this is not a long-term solution to addressing alcohol-related harm, it further raises the importance of implementing evidence-based alcohol control measures.  
ISSN:0256-9574
2078-5135
DOI:10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i9.15813