What drives dynamics in the Gulf of Alaska? Integrating hypotheses of species, fishing, and climate relationships using ecosystem modeling

We use a dynamic ecosystem model to evaluate the relative effects of fishing history, climate change, and predator–prey interactions in determining biomass trajectories for 12 species groups ranging from marine mammals through commercially exploited fish and invertebrates in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA)...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences 2011-09, Vol.68 (9), p.1553-1578
Main Authors: GAICHAS, Sarah K, AYDIN, Kerim Y, FRANCIS, Robert C
Format: Article
Language:eng ; fre
Subjects:
Aquatic ecosystems
Biomass
Climate change
Distribution
Ecologie animale et végétale
Ecologie animale, vegetale et microbienne
Ecologie appliquée
Environmental aspects
Exploitation et gestion des ressources biologiques naturelles (chasse, pêche, surveillance des populations exploitées, etc.)
Fisheries management
Fishing
Généralités
Marine
Predation
Sciences biologiques et medicales
Sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. Psychologie
Synécologie
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We use a dynamic ecosystem model to evaluate the relative effects of fishing history, climate change, and predator–prey interactions in determining biomass trajectories for 12 species groups ranging from marine mammals through commercially exploited fish and invertebrates in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Ecosystem model fits under six alternative hypotheses relating fishing, climate, and predation were evaluated. Fishing alone explained few GOA biomass trajectories; it was necessary to both estimate specific predator–prey relationships and provide some mechanism for increased production. No single control hypothesis explained all species dynamics simultaneously, suggesting that in the GOA, there is no single main driver of the ecosystem. Furthermore, the alternative control hypotheses implied contrasting sets of predator–prey relationships (estimated functional response parameters). Therefore, a single set of “best fit” parameters for a given control hypothesis is unlikely to be useful in forecasting. Future modeling efforts supporting ecosystem-based fishery management could retain multiple working models to accommodate complex forcing (fishing, keystone species production, and environmental) differentially affecting components of the ecosystem.
ISSN:0706-652X
1205-7533
DOI:10.1139/f2011-080