Stochastic modeling of obesity status in United States adults using Markov Chains: A nationally representative analysis of population health data from 2017–2020

Stochastic modeling of obesity status in United States adults using Markov Chains: A nationally representative analysis of population health data from 2017–2020

Importance The prevalence of obesity among United States adults has increased from 34.9% in 2013–2014 to 42.8% in 2017–2018. Developing methods to model the increase of obesity over‐time is a necessity to know how to accurately quantify its cost and to develop solutions to combat this national publi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Obesity science & practice 2023-12, Vol.9 (6), p.653-660
Main Authors: Huang, Alexander A., Huang, Samuel Y.
Format: Article
Language:eng
Subjects:
Adults
Body weight
Datasets
Disease control
Epidemiology
Estimates
Females
Hispanic people
Markov analysis
Markov chain
Markov chains
NHANES
Nutrition
Obesity
Original
Overweight
Population
Public health
Questionnaires
Simulation
Stochasticity
Surveys
Underweight
Weight control
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Summary:Importance The prevalence of obesity among United States adults has increased from 34.9% in 2013–2014 to 42.8% in 2017–2018. Developing methods to model the increase of obesity over‐time is a necessity to know how to accurately quantify its cost and to develop solutions to combat this national public health emergency. Methods A cross‐sectional cohort study using the publicly available National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2017–2020) was conducted in individuals who completed the weight questionnaire and had accurate data for both weight at the time of survey and weight 10 years ago. To model the dynamics of obesity, a Markov transition state matrix was created, which allowed for the analysis of weight transitions over time. Bootstrap simulation was incorporated to account for uncertainty and generate multiple simulated datasets, providing a more robust estimation of the prevalence and trends in obesity within the cohort. Results Of the 6146 individuals who met the inclusion criteria, 3024 (49%) individuals were male and 3122 (51%) were female. There were 2252 (37%) White individuals, 1257 (20%) Hispanic individuals, 1636 (37%) Black individuals, and 739 (12%) Asian individuals. The average BMI was 30.16 (SD = 7.15), the average weight was 83.67 kilos (SD = 22.04), and the average weight change was a 3.27 kg (SD = 14.97) increase in body weight. A total of 2411 (39%) individuals lost weight, and 3735 (61%) individuals gained weight. 87 (1%) individuals were underweight (BMI
ISSN:2055-2238
2055-2238