Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard

El Niño and La Niña events, the extremes of ENSO climate variability, influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. Estimates of the historical probability of extreme (high or low) precipitation are used to provide vital information on the likelihood of adverse impacts during extreme ENSO e...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Nature communications 2017-03, Vol.8 (1), p.14796-14796, Article 14796
Main Authors:	Emerton, R, Cloke, H L, Stephens, E M, Zsoter, E, Woolnough, S J, Pappenberger, F
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	20th century Climate Datasets El Nino Hydrology Ocean currents Precipitation Probability Rain River networks Weather forecasting
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	El Niño and La Niña events, the extremes of ENSO climate variability, influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. Estimates of the historical probability of extreme (high or low) precipitation are used to provide vital information on the likelihood of adverse impacts during extreme ENSO events. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude motivates the need for estimation of historical probabilities using analysis of hydrological data sets. Here, this analysis is undertaken using the ERA-20CM-R river flow reconstruction for the twentieth century. Our results show that the likelihood of increased or decreased flood hazard during ENSO events is much more complex than is often perceived and reported; probabilities vary greatly across the globe, with large uncertainties inherent in the data and clear differences when comparing the hydrological analysis to precipitation.
ISSN:	2041-1723 2041-1723