Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics

Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empiricall...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Nature communications 2023-12, Vol.14 (1), p.8479-8479, Article 8479
Main Authors:	Liu, Andrew Bo, Lee, Daniel, Jalihal, Amogh Prabhav, Hanage, William P, Springer, Michael
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Air monitoring Air transportation Air Travel Aircraft Catchments COVID-19 COVID-19 - diagnosis COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - prevention & control Disease spread HIV Hospitals Human immunodeficiency virus Humans Medical wastes Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control Pathogens Public health SARS-CoV-2 Standard error Surveillance Surveillance systems Telemedicine Travel Viral diseases Wastewater
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Summary:	Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Air travel monitoring does not accelerate outbreak detection in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.
ISSN:	2041-1723 2041-1723