Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Climate is one of the main drivers of hydrological processes, and climate change has caused worldwide effects such as water scarcity, frequent floods and intense droughts. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change on the water balance components, high flow and low flow s...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water (Basel) 2024-03, Vol.16 (6), p.805
Main Authors: Haji Mohammadi, Marziyeh, Shafaie, Vahid, Nazari Samani, Aliakbar, Zare Garizi, Arash, Movahedi Rad, Majid
Format: Article
Language:eng
Subjects:
Climate change
CMIP6
Drought
Droughts
extreme flow
Floods
Global temperature changes
Hydrologic cycle
hydrological modeling
Hydrology
Investigations
Iran
Management
Precipitation
Rain
Regions
Rivers
Runoff
Stream flow
SUFI-2 algorithm
Taleghan watershed
Temperature
Variables
Water
Water balance (Hydrology)
Watersheds
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Climate is one of the main drivers of hydrological processes, and climate change has caused worldwide effects such as water scarcity, frequent floods and intense droughts. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change on the water balance components, high flow and low flow stream conditions in a semi-arid basin in Iran. For this reason, the climate outputs of the CanESM5 model under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 were spatially downscaled by the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The hydrological process was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Key findings include a 74% increase in evapotranspiration, a reduction by up to 9.6% in surface runoff, and variations in discharge by up to 53.6%. The temporal analysis of snow melting changes revealed an increase in the volume of snow melting during winter months and a reduction in the volume during spring. The projected climate change is expected to cause notable variations in high and low flow events, particularly under the SSP585 scenario, which anticipates significant peaks in flow rates. This comprehensive analysis underscores the pressing need for adaptive strategies in water resource management to mitigate the anticipated impacts of climate variability.
ISSN:2073-4441
2073-4441