The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations

We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research letters 2018-12, Vol.13 (12), p.123007
Main Authors: Lewandowsky, Stephan, Cowtan, Kevin, Risbey, James S, Mann, Michael E, Steinman, Byron A, Oreskes, Naomi, Rahmstorf, Stefan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
'pause' in global warming
Climate change
Climate models
climate projections
Global warming
Robustness
Statistical analysis
Surface temperature
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Summary:We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372