The scientific legacy of Harold Edwin Hurst (1880-1978)

Emanating from his remarkable characterization of long-term variability in geophysical records in the early 1950s, Hurst's scientific legacy to hydrology and other disciplines is explored. A statistical explanation of the so-called "Hurst Phenomenon" did not emerge until 1968 when Man...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrological sciences journal 2016-07, Vol.61 (9), p.1571-1590
Main Authors: O'Connell, P.E., Koutsoyiannis, D., Lins, H. F., Markonis, Y., Montanari, A., Cohn, T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Brackish
Climate change
Climate models
Climate system
Climate variability
climatic variability
Dye dispersion
Dynamics
fractional Gaussian noise
Geophysics
Hurst
Hurst phenomenon
Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
long-term persistence
Marine
Modelling
Ocean dynamics
Random noise
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Surface temperature
Temperature (air-sea)
Variability
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Summary:Emanating from his remarkable characterization of long-term variability in geophysical records in the early 1950s, Hurst's scientific legacy to hydrology and other disciplines is explored. A statistical explanation of the so-called "Hurst Phenomenon" did not emerge until 1968 when Mandelbrot and co-authors proposed fractional Gaussian noise based on the hypothesis of infinite memory. A vibrant hydrological literature ensued where alternative modelling representations were explored and debated, e.g. ARMA models, the Broken Line model, shifting mean models with no memory, FARIMA models, and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, acknowledging a link with the work of Kolmogorov in 1940. The diffusion of Hurst's work beyond hydrology is summarized by discipline and citations, showing that he arguably has the largest scientific footprint of any hydrologist in the last century. Its particular relevance to the modelling of long-term climatic variability in the era of climate change is discussed. Links to various long-term modes of variability in the climate system, driven by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics, are explored. Several issues related to the Hurst Phenomenon in hydrology remain as a challenge for future research. Editor M. Acreman; Associate editor A. Carsteanu
ISSN:0262-6667
2150-3435
DOI:10.1080/02626667.2015.1125998