Modeling Storm Surge and its Associated Inland Inundation Extent Due to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin

A hindcast simulation of storm surge and inundation from tropical cyclone Phalin, which made landfall at Odisha, India, on 12 October 2013, was carried out using ADCIRC model. Model-simulated inundation extent matched well with field surveys at Ganjam, Odisha, within a few days of landfall. Further,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Marine geodesy 2015-10, Vol.38 (4), p.345-360
Main Authors: Srinivasa Kumar, T., Murty, P.L.N., Pradeep Kumar, M., Krishna Kumar, M., Padmanabham, J., Kiran Kumar, N., Shenoi, S.C., Mohapatra, M., Nayak, Shailesh, Mohanty, Prakash
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
ADCIRC
Computer simulation
Cyclones
Gages
Geodesy
Inundation
Marine
Mathematical models
Phailin
residual
Simulation
storm surge
Storm surges
Surges
Tides
wave setup
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Summary:A hindcast simulation of storm surge and inundation from tropical cyclone Phalin, which made landfall at Odisha, India, on 12 October 2013, was carried out using ADCIRC model. Model-simulated inundation extent matched well with field surveys at Ganjam, Odisha, within a few days of landfall. Further, the model reproduced the temporal evolution of the surge residual with respect to observations from a tide gauge at Paradip (correlation 0.8, RMSE 0.26 m). However, the model marginally underestimated the magnitude with respect to observations, which can be attributed to the lack of wave setup in the model and uncertainty in wind and pressure information. The experiment also involved the use of two idealized scenarios, that is, variation of landfall timings with the ebbing and high tide phase. These scenarios were required for better understanding the sensitivity of inundation to the phase of tide in the model. Simulation with landfall at flooding (ebbing) tide showed greater (lower) inundation than the real scenario. Results from idealized scenarios confirmed the significance of the accuracy needed in forecasting landfall time. Our results clearly indicate that the overall performance of the model is good and therefore is of potential use as a tool to forewarn disaster management authorities.
ISSN:0149-0419
1521-060X
DOI:10.1080/01490419.2015.1053640