A look into our future under climate change? Adaptation and migration intentions following extreme flooding in the Netherlands
Worldwide, increased flood risk from climate change prompts adaptive behavior of households in situ or through migration. Both can be sensible adaptation responses involving tradeoffs, and understanding their drivers is important for effective climate policy. However, in-situ adaptation and migratio...
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| Published in: | International journal of disaster risk reduction 2023-09, Vol.95, p.103840, Article 103840 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | eng |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | Worldwide, increased flood risk from climate change prompts adaptive behavior of households in situ or through migration. Both can be sensible adaptation responses involving tradeoffs, and understanding their drivers is important for effective climate policy. However, in-situ adaptation and migration are rarely studied in combination and research on how extreme events trigger adaptive behavior in originally low-risk areas is lacking. We analyze survey data from residents affected by the extreme summer floods of 2021 in the Netherlands to contribute to fill this research gap. Our results indicate that current low levels of flood-related migration are likely to increase under higher flood risk. Undertaken in-situ adaptation may act as a barrier for further in-situ adaptation or migration behavior. Where in-situ adaptation is mostly related to cognitive factors including risk perceptions, response efficacy and self-efficacy, migration seems to be driven by flood-related emotions. Personal flood experience, mediated by worry, is strongly associated with both types of adaptive behavior. We discuss how policymakers can use these insights to guide and anticipate household adaptation behavior.
•Analysis of household flood adaptation in response to unique extreme flood event.•Among first studies to compare drivers of in-situ adaptation and migration.•Cognitive factors drive in-situ adaptation, flood-related emotions drive migration.•Experience of flooding drives both behaviors, mediated by flood-related emotions.•Flood-related migration is low, but increases under climate change scenarios. |
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| ISSN: | 2212-4209 2212-4209 |