Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa

Humanitarian organizations are increasingly interested in using seasonal forecasts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of potential disasters before they begin. El Niño teleconnections increase the predictability of flooding and drought events in Southern and Eastern Africa, providing humanitari...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	International journal of disaster risk reduction 2018-09, Vol.30, p.81-94
Main Authors:	Tozier de la Poterie, Arielle S., Jjemba, Wasswa Eddie, Singh, Roop, Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Costella, Cecilia V., Arrighi, Julie
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Climate risk management Climate services Early warning El Niño Humanitarian action Seasonal forecasts
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	Humanitarian organizations are increasingly interested in using seasonal forecasts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of potential disasters before they begin. El Niño teleconnections increase the predictability of flooding and drought events in Southern and Eastern Africa, providing humanitarian stakeholders with advanced warning of potential weather events. This study draws on evidence from key-informant interviews with humanitarian organizations and government officials in five African countries (Zambia, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi) to better understand how national, regional, and international humanitarian organizations respond to climate and weather warnings. We find that organizations looked to data from past El Niño events to develop contingency plans and gradually implement response activities but that few organizations attempt to monitor and evaluate their activities or use forecasts to help people capture additional benefits. Although they would like greater specificity and higher forecast skill, humanitarians largely trust international forecasts. Access to intermediaries, contextualized data, and flexible funding, and well-established social protection mechanisms facilitate action. Based on these results we recommend that future efforts focus on developing capacities and complementary, localized, information that will help actors translate the forecasts into action. Future research is also needed to understand whether action leads to desired impacts.
ISSN:	2212-4209 2212-4209