Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives

The UK Government has ambitious targets for CO2 emissions reductions, particularly for the domestic housing stock. One technology that is expected to contribute significantly is heat pumps, both air and ground source. However, recent field trial results suggest that heat pumps in the UK are not deli...

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Main Authors:	David Braun, Paul Rowley
Format:	Default Article
Published:	2013
Subjects:	Mechanical engineering not elsewhere classified Air source heat pumps Ground source heat pumps Standard assessment procedure Monte Carlo English housing condition survey Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified
Online Access:	https://hdl.handle.net/2134/13047
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id	rr-article-9560861
record_format	Figshare
spelling	rr-article-95608612013-01-01T00:00:00Z Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives David Braun (7211207) Paul Rowley (1249551) Mechanical engineering not elsewhere classified Air source heat pumps Ground source heat pumps Standard assessment procedure Monte Carlo English housing condition survey Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified The UK Government has ambitious targets for CO2 emissions reductions, particularly for the domestic housing stock. One technology that is expected to contribute significantly is heat pumps, both air and ground source. However, recent field trial results suggest that heat pumps in the UK are not delivering to performance expectations. This paper looks at the implications of these results for the UK housing stock’s future CO2 emissions. The English Housing Condition Survey dataset is used as the basis for a Monte Carlo simulation in order to model CO2 emissions and energy consumption for the whole of English housing stock out to 2050. The results suggest that, given the current UK electricity grid CO2 emission factor, in the short term poor heat pump performance could lead to a rise in emissions where natural gas boilers are displaced. In the longer term, heat pumps can realise emissions reductions when installed at high penetration levels when combined with a grid decarbonisation strategy. Until grid decarbonisation occurs, an alternative phased strategy is proposed that includes phased replacement of resistive electric heating, first in households in fuel poverty and then the remainder of properties with this heating type. Following this phased strategy, real emissions savings are possible along with a potential reduction in fuel poverty. 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Text Journal contribution 2134/13047 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Modelling_the_contribution_of_domestic_heat_pumps_to_delivering_UK_energy_policy_objectives/9560861 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
institution	Loughborough University
collection	Figshare
topic	Mechanical engineering not elsewhere classified Air source heat pumps Ground source heat pumps Standard assessment procedure Monte Carlo English housing condition survey Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified
spellingShingle	Mechanical engineering not elsewhere classified Air source heat pumps Ground source heat pumps Standard assessment procedure Monte Carlo English housing condition survey Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified David Braun Paul Rowley Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives
description	The UK Government has ambitious targets for CO2 emissions reductions, particularly for the domestic housing stock. One technology that is expected to contribute significantly is heat pumps, both air and ground source. However, recent field trial results suggest that heat pumps in the UK are not delivering to performance expectations. This paper looks at the implications of these results for the UK housing stock’s future CO2 emissions. The English Housing Condition Survey dataset is used as the basis for a Monte Carlo simulation in order to model CO2 emissions and energy consumption for the whole of English housing stock out to 2050. The results suggest that, given the current UK electricity grid CO2 emission factor, in the short term poor heat pump performance could lead to a rise in emissions where natural gas boilers are displaced. In the longer term, heat pumps can realise emissions reductions when installed at high penetration levels when combined with a grid decarbonisation strategy. Until grid decarbonisation occurs, an alternative phased strategy is proposed that includes phased replacement of resistive electric heating, first in households in fuel poverty and then the remainder of properties with this heating type. Following this phased strategy, real emissions savings are possible along with a potential reduction in fuel poverty.
format	Default Article
author	David Braun Paul Rowley
author_facet	David Braun Paul Rowley
author_sort	David Braun (7211207)
title	Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives
title_short	Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives
title_full	Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives
title_fullStr	Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives
title_sort	modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering uk energy policy objectives
publishDate	2013
url	https://hdl.handle.net/2134/13047
_version_	1797919587768991744

Modelling the contribution of domestic heat pumps to delivering UK energy policy objectives

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