Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern C...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	PloS one 2013-03, Vol.8 (3), p.e58450
Main Authors:	Torregrosa, Alicia, Taylor, Maxwell D, Flint, Lorraine E, Flint, Alan L
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Bioclimatic indexes Bioclimatology Biogeography Biology Biometeorology Climate Climate change Climate Change - classification Climate Change - statistics & numerical data Climate models Climatic conditions Climatology Comparative analysis Comparative studies Computational fluid dynamics Computer Science Conservation of Natural Resources Continentality Digital mapping Dispersal Drought Earth Sciences Ecosystem Emission analysis Flowers & plants Fluid dynamics Future climates Geography Geology Geophysical fluids Geophysics Hydrodynamics Models, Theoretical Ordination Patches (structures) Photosynthesis Phylogeography Plants Precipitation San Francisco Science Social and Behavioral Sciences Spatial discrimination Spatial resolution Temperature Trees Vegetation Vegetation distribution
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Summary:	Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20(th) century climatology (1971-2000) and end of the 21(st) century climatology (2070-2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution -270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20(th) century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km(2) study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km(2). The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203