Development of a model to predict closure of chronic wounds in Germany: Claims data analysis

Patients with chronic leg ulcer, pressure ulcer, or diabetic foot ulcer suffer from significant disease burden. With a view to improving healthcare provision sustainably, a predictive model of time to closure (time‐to‐event analysis) based on claims data was developed. To identify potential predicto...

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Published in:International wound journal 2022-01, Vol.19 (1), p.76-85
Main Authors: Hagenström, Kristina, Protz, Kerstin, Petersen, Jana, Augustin, Matthias
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
chronic wounds
Data Analysis
Diabetes
Diabetic Foot - epidemiology
Diabetic Foot - therapy
Foot diseases
Germany - epidemiology
Humans
Hydrogels
Infections
Leg Ulcer - epidemiology
Leg Ulcer - therapy
Leg ulcers
Older people
Original
Population
predictors
Prescriptions
Pressure distribution
Pressure ulcers
Primary care
Sociodemographics
Statistical analysis
statutory health insurance
wound closure
Wound Healing
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cites cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4439-5fa1cb53851bc07830cb3532592307f2fdc45c613cc1d3488c97fc5007fb32c23
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container_title International wound journal
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creator Hagenström, Kristina
Protz, Kerstin
Petersen, Jana
Augustin, Matthias
description Patients with chronic leg ulcer, pressure ulcer, or diabetic foot ulcer suffer from significant disease burden. With a view to improving healthcare provision sustainably, a predictive model of time to closure (time‐to‐event analysis) based on claims data was developed. To identify potential predictors of wound closure, clinical information absent from statutory health insurance (SHI) data was modelled. In patients with leg ulcers, age of the patient (hazard ratios [HR] 0.99), increasing number of comorbidities (HR 0.94), inpatient stays (HR 0.74), and treatment by a specialised wound care professional (HR 1.18) were significant predictors of time to closure (adjusted model). In almost all models, the number of inpatient stays and of comorbidities predicted a lower probability of healing. In addition, the age and the sex of the patient were found to be significant predictors in some models (leg ulcer: HR 0.99; pressure ulcer: HR 0.99). Increasing number of comorbidities and inpatient stays were predictors for closure time in all models. Since these predictors may give an indication of wound severity, further clinical information should be considered in future models, as also indicated by the moderate values of the c‐statistics. This requires future data linkage between SHI and primary studies (eg, registers).
doi_str_mv 10.1111/iwj.13599
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source Wiley; PubMed Central
subjects Age
chronic wounds
Data Analysis
Diabetes
Diabetic Foot - epidemiology
Diabetic Foot - therapy
Foot diseases
Germany - epidemiology
Humans
Hydrogels
Infections
Leg Ulcer - epidemiology
Leg Ulcer - therapy
Leg ulcers
Older people
Original
Population
predictors
Prescriptions
Pressure distribution
Pressure ulcers
Primary care
Sociodemographics
Statistical analysis
statutory health insurance
wound closure
Wound Healing
title Development of a model to predict closure of chronic wounds in Germany: Claims data analysis
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