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Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination
Abstract Background With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important. Methods We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified c...
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| Published in: | The Journal of infectious diseases 2021-09, Vol.224 (6), p.938-948 |
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| container_issue | 6 |
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| container_title | The Journal of infectious diseases |
| container_volume | 224 |
| creator | Bartsch, Sarah M Wedlock, Patrick T O’Shea, Kelly J Cox, Sarah N Strych, Ulrich Nuzzo, Jennifer B Ferguson, Marie C Bottazzi, Maria Elena Siegmund, Sheryl S Hotez, Peter J Lee, Bruce Y |
| description | Abstract
Background
With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important.
Methods
We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020–December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage.
Results
When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000–2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses.
Conclusions
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy, increasing vaccination coverage, and how this may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before fall/winter. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1093/infdis/jiab233 |
| format | article |
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Background
With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important.
Methods
We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020–December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage.
Results
When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000–2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses.
Conclusions
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy, increasing vaccination coverage, and how this may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before fall/winter.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-1899</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-6613</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiab233</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33954775</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>US: Oxford University Press</publisher><subject>Age ; Computer applications ; Coronaviruses ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - prevention & control ; COVID-19 vaccines ; COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage ; COVID-19 Vaccines - economics ; Disease transmission ; Editor's Choice ; Epidemiology ; Humans ; Immunization ; Major and Brief Reports ; Models, Economic ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States ; Vaccination - economics ; Vaccination - statistics & numerical data ; Vaccine efficacy ; Vaccines</subject><ispartof>The Journal of infectious diseases, 2021-09, Vol.224 (6), p.938-948</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. 2021</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c452t-29ca688675bc2a44bd28872bd55b21b5895766bd9925f0b40bc0e0ffc83205653</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c452t-29ca688675bc2a44bd28872bd55b21b5895766bd9925f0b40bc0e0ffc83205653</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,315,786,790,891,1591,27957,27958</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33954775$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Bartsch, Sarah M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wedlock, Patrick T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>O’Shea, Kelly J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cox, Sarah N</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Strych, Ulrich</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nuzzo, Jennifer B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ferguson, Marie C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bottazzi, Maria Elena</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Siegmund, Sheryl S</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hotez, Peter J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lee, Bruce Y</creatorcontrib><title>Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination</title><title>The Journal of infectious diseases</title><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><description>Abstract
Background
With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important.
Methods
We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020–December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage.
Results
When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000–2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses.
Conclusions
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy, increasing vaccination coverage, and how this may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before fall/winter.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>Computer applications</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>Cost-Benefit Analysis</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - prevention & control</subject><subject>COVID-19 vaccines</subject><subject>COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage</subject><subject>COVID-19 Vaccines - economics</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Editor's Choice</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Immunization</subject><subject>Major and Brief Reports</subject><subject>Models, Economic</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2</subject><subject>United States</subject><subject>Vaccination - economics</subject><subject>Vaccination - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Vaccine efficacy</subject><subject>Vaccines</subject><issn>0022-1899</issn><issn>1537-6613</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkctPGzEQxq2KqgmUK0e0Ehc4LPixfl2QUJo-pEg9QLlattcbHCV2sHcj8t_XaQJqufQ0mpnffPpGHwBnCF4jKMmND13r883Ca4MJ-QDGiBJeM4bIERhDiHGNhJQjcJzzAkLYEMY_gREhkjac0zF4nPmNy5UObTWJuc_Vvd64tjLbavqyLlMf5n-WpXOt73ftJKYY9ManIVdffHY6uwpDJKtHba0PuvcxfAYfO73M7vRQT8Cvr9OHyfd69vPbj8ndrLYNxX2NpdVMCMapsVg3jWmxEBybllKDkaFCUs6YaaXEtIOmgcZCB7vOCoIhZZScgNu97nowK9daF_qkl2qd_EqnrYraq383wT-pedwogQiDiBeBy4NAis-Dy71a-WzdcqmDi0NWmGLMEOMNKujFO3QRhxTKe4UqNrlgUhTqek_ZFHNOrnszg6DaRab2kalDZOXg_O8X3vDXjApwtQfisP6f2G__NKHr</recordid><startdate>20210917</startdate><enddate>20210917</enddate><creator>Bartsch, Sarah M</creator><creator>Wedlock, Patrick T</creator><creator>O’Shea, Kelly J</creator><creator>Cox, Sarah N</creator><creator>Strych, Ulrich</creator><creator>Nuzzo, Jennifer B</creator><creator>Ferguson, Marie C</creator><creator>Bottazzi, Maria Elena</creator><creator>Siegmund, Sheryl S</creator><creator>Hotez, Peter J</creator><creator>Lee, Bruce Y</creator><general>Oxford University Press</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20210917</creationdate><title>Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination</title><author>Bartsch, Sarah M ; Wedlock, Patrick T ; O’Shea, Kelly J ; Cox, Sarah N ; Strych, Ulrich ; Nuzzo, Jennifer B ; Ferguson, Marie C ; Bottazzi, Maria Elena ; Siegmund, Sheryl S ; Hotez, Peter J ; Lee, Bruce Y</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c452t-29ca688675bc2a44bd28872bd55b21b5895766bd9925f0b40bc0e0ffc83205653</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>Computer applications</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>Cost-Benefit Analysis</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>COVID-19 - prevention & control</topic><topic>COVID-19 vaccines</topic><topic>COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage</topic><topic>COVID-19 Vaccines - economics</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Editor's Choice</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Immunization</topic><topic>Major and Brief Reports</topic><topic>Models, Economic</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2</topic><topic>United States</topic><topic>Vaccination - economics</topic><topic>Vaccination - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Vaccine efficacy</topic><topic>Vaccines</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Bartsch, Sarah M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wedlock, Patrick T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>O’Shea, Kelly J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cox, Sarah N</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Strych, Ulrich</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nuzzo, Jennifer B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ferguson, Marie C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bottazzi, Maria Elena</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Siegmund, Sheryl S</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hotez, Peter J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lee, Bruce Y</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>The Journal of infectious diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Bartsch, Sarah M</au><au>Wedlock, Patrick T</au><au>O’Shea, Kelly J</au><au>Cox, Sarah N</au><au>Strych, Ulrich</au><au>Nuzzo, Jennifer B</au><au>Ferguson, Marie C</au><au>Bottazzi, Maria Elena</au><au>Siegmund, Sheryl S</au><au>Hotez, Peter J</au><au>Lee, Bruce Y</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination</atitle><jtitle>The Journal of infectious diseases</jtitle><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><date>2021-09-17</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>224</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>938</spage><epage>948</epage><pages>938-948</pages><issn>0022-1899</issn><eissn>1537-6613</eissn><notes>ObjectType-Article-1</notes><notes>SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1</notes><notes>ObjectType-Feature-2</notes><notes>content type line 23</notes><abstract>Abstract
Background
With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important.
Methods
We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020–December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage.
Results
When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000–2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses.
Conclusions
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.
Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy, increasing vaccination coverage, and how this may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before fall/winter.</abstract><cop>US</cop><pub>Oxford University Press</pub><pmid>33954775</pmid><doi>10.1093/infdis/jiab233</doi><tpages>11</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | The Journal of infectious diseases, 2021-09, Vol.224 (6), p.938-948 |
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| source | Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current) |
| subjects | Age Computer applications Coronaviruses Cost-Benefit Analysis COVID-19 COVID-19 - prevention & control COVID-19 vaccines COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage COVID-19 Vaccines - economics Disease transmission Editor's Choice Epidemiology Humans Immunization Major and Brief Reports Models, Economic SARS-CoV-2 United States Vaccination - economics Vaccination - statistics & numerical data Vaccine efficacy Vaccines |
| title | Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination |
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