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Modeling based response guided therapy in subjects with recent hepatitis C infection
Mathematical modeling of viral kinetics has been shown to identify patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who could be cured with a shorter duration of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. However, modeling therapy duration has yet to be evaluated in recently infected individual...
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Published in: | Antiviral research 2020-08, Vol.180, p.104862-104862, Article 104862 |
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creator | Gorstein, Evan Martinello, Marianne Churkin, Alexander Dasgupta, Swikriti Walsh, Kevin Applegate, Tanya L. Yardeni, David Etzion, Ohad Uprichard, Susan L. Barash, Danny Cotler, Scott J. Matthews, Gail V. Dahari, Harel |
description | Mathematical modeling of viral kinetics has been shown to identify patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who could be cured with a shorter duration of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. However, modeling therapy duration has yet to be evaluated in recently infected individuals. The aim of this study was to retrospectively examine whether modeling can predict outcomes of six-week sofosbuvir (SOF) and weight-based ribavirin (R) therapy in individuals with recent HCV infection.
Modeling was used to estimate viral host parameters and to predict time to cure for 12 adults with recent HCV infection ( |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104862 |
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Modeling was used to estimate viral host parameters and to predict time to cure for 12 adults with recent HCV infection (<12 months of infection) who received six weeks of treatment with SOF + R.
Modeling results yielded a 100% negative predictive value for SOF + R treatment response in nine participants and suggested that a median of 13 [interquartile range: 8–16] weeks of therapy would be required for these patients to achieve cure. Modeling predicted cure after 5 weeks of therapy in the only modeled participant who achieved a sustained virological response. However, cure was also predicted for two participants who relapsed following treatment.
The modeling results confirm that longer than 6 weeks of SOF + R is needed to reach cure in individuals with recent HCV infection. Prospective real-time modeling under current potent DAA regimens is needed to validate the potential of response-guided therapy in the management of recent HCV infection.
•Modeling identifies chronic hepatitis C patients who were cured with a reduced duration of direct-acting antivirals (DAA).•Duration of DAA treatment has not been previously modeled in persons with recent (<12 months) hepatitis C infection.•We retrospectively modeled ultra-short (6-week) sofosbuvir + ribavirin therapy in recently infected persons.•Modeling might help identify persons with recent hepatitis C who are appropriate for ultra-short duration of DAA therapy.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0166-3542</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1872-9096</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104862</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32592829</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Direct-acting antivirals ; Hepatitis c virus ; Mathematical modeling ; Recent infection</subject><ispartof>Antiviral research, 2020-08, Vol.180, p.104862-104862, Article 104862</ispartof><rights>2020 Elsevier B.V.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c452t-a934bb736448e19b8ea04d1ca90dc13f7c12568c1cb5324079e7de806a8353b63</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c452t-a934bb736448e19b8ea04d1ca90dc13f7c12568c1cb5324079e7de806a8353b63</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3357-1817 ; 0000-0001-5691-1557</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,315,786,790,891,27957,27958</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Gorstein, Evan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Martinello, Marianne</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Churkin, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dasgupta, Swikriti</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Walsh, Kevin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Applegate, Tanya L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yardeni, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Etzion, Ohad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Uprichard, Susan L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barash, Danny</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cotler, Scott J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matthews, Gail V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dahari, Harel</creatorcontrib><title>Modeling based response guided therapy in subjects with recent hepatitis C infection</title><title>Antiviral research</title><description>Mathematical modeling of viral kinetics has been shown to identify patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who could be cured with a shorter duration of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. However, modeling therapy duration has yet to be evaluated in recently infected individuals. The aim of this study was to retrospectively examine whether modeling can predict outcomes of six-week sofosbuvir (SOF) and weight-based ribavirin (R) therapy in individuals with recent HCV infection.
Modeling was used to estimate viral host parameters and to predict time to cure for 12 adults with recent HCV infection (<12 months of infection) who received six weeks of treatment with SOF + R.
Modeling results yielded a 100% negative predictive value for SOF + R treatment response in nine participants and suggested that a median of 13 [interquartile range: 8–16] weeks of therapy would be required for these patients to achieve cure. Modeling predicted cure after 5 weeks of therapy in the only modeled participant who achieved a sustained virological response. However, cure was also predicted for two participants who relapsed following treatment.
The modeling results confirm that longer than 6 weeks of SOF + R is needed to reach cure in individuals with recent HCV infection. Prospective real-time modeling under current potent DAA regimens is needed to validate the potential of response-guided therapy in the management of recent HCV infection.
•Modeling identifies chronic hepatitis C patients who were cured with a reduced duration of direct-acting antivirals (DAA).•Duration of DAA treatment has not been previously modeled in persons with recent (<12 months) hepatitis C infection.•We retrospectively modeled ultra-short (6-week) sofosbuvir + ribavirin therapy in recently infected persons.•Modeling might help identify persons with recent hepatitis C who are appropriate for ultra-short duration of DAA therapy.</description><subject>Direct-acting antivirals</subject><subject>Hepatitis c virus</subject><subject>Mathematical modeling</subject><subject>Recent infection</subject><issn>0166-3542</issn><issn>1872-9096</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkU9rGzEQxUVpaZy0n6F77GUd_VutdCkE06SFhF7Ss9BKY1tmLW0lrUO-fbU4BHLKadDMb96I9xD6RvCaYCKuD2sTij_5ZMY1xXTpcinoB7Qisqetwkp8RKtKipZ1nF6gy5wPGGPRK_kZXTDaKSqpWqHHh-hg9GHXDCaDaxLkKYYMzW72rr7LHpKZnhsfmjwPB7AlN0--7CtoIZRmD5MpvvjcbCqzrXMfwxf0aWvGDF9f6hX6e_vzcfOrvf9z93tzc99a3tHSGsX4MPRMcC6BqEGCwdwRaxR2lrBtbwnthLTEDh2jHPcKegcSCyNZxwbBrtCPs-40D0dwy4eqIXpK_mjSs47G67eT4Pd6F0-6Z9UlIqvA9xeBFP_NkIs--mxhHE2AOGdNOZGESMkXtD-jNsWcE2xfzxCsl0z0Qb9mopdM9DmTunlz3oRqxclD0tl6CBacryYW7aJ_V-M_IXeZwQ</recordid><startdate>20200801</startdate><enddate>20200801</enddate><creator>Gorstein, Evan</creator><creator>Martinello, Marianne</creator><creator>Churkin, Alexander</creator><creator>Dasgupta, Swikriti</creator><creator>Walsh, Kevin</creator><creator>Applegate, Tanya L.</creator><creator>Yardeni, David</creator><creator>Etzion, Ohad</creator><creator>Uprichard, Susan L.</creator><creator>Barash, Danny</creator><creator>Cotler, Scott J.</creator><creator>Matthews, Gail V.</creator><creator>Dahari, Harel</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3357-1817</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1557</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200801</creationdate><title>Modeling based response guided therapy in subjects with recent hepatitis C infection</title><author>Gorstein, Evan ; Martinello, Marianne ; Churkin, Alexander ; Dasgupta, Swikriti ; Walsh, Kevin ; Applegate, Tanya L. ; Yardeni, David ; Etzion, Ohad ; Uprichard, Susan L. ; Barash, Danny ; Cotler, Scott J. ; Matthews, Gail V. ; Dahari, Harel</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c452t-a934bb736448e19b8ea04d1ca90dc13f7c12568c1cb5324079e7de806a8353b63</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Direct-acting antivirals</topic><topic>Hepatitis c virus</topic><topic>Mathematical modeling</topic><topic>Recent infection</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Gorstein, Evan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Martinello, Marianne</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Churkin, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dasgupta, Swikriti</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Walsh, Kevin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Applegate, Tanya L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yardeni, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Etzion, Ohad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Uprichard, Susan L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barash, Danny</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cotler, Scott J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matthews, Gail V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dahari, Harel</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Antiviral research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Gorstein, Evan</au><au>Martinello, Marianne</au><au>Churkin, Alexander</au><au>Dasgupta, Swikriti</au><au>Walsh, Kevin</au><au>Applegate, Tanya L.</au><au>Yardeni, David</au><au>Etzion, Ohad</au><au>Uprichard, Susan L.</au><au>Barash, Danny</au><au>Cotler, Scott J.</au><au>Matthews, Gail V.</au><au>Dahari, Harel</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Modeling based response guided therapy in subjects with recent hepatitis C infection</atitle><jtitle>Antiviral research</jtitle><date>2020-08-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>180</volume><spage>104862</spage><epage>104862</epage><pages>104862-104862</pages><artnum>104862</artnum><issn>0166-3542</issn><eissn>1872-9096</eissn><notes>ObjectType-Article-1</notes><notes>SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1</notes><notes>ObjectType-Feature-2</notes><notes>content type line 23</notes><notes>Authors Contributions: Study concept and design: MM, GVM, HD. Acquisition of data: MM, TA, GVM. Analysis and interpretation of data: EG, SD, KW, HD. Drafting of manuscript: EG, AC, SD, SLU, DB, SJC, HD. Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: MM, DY, OE, SJC, GVM, HD. Statistical and modeling analyses: EG, AC, SD, KW, DB, HD. Study supervision: HD.</notes><abstract>Mathematical modeling of viral kinetics has been shown to identify patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who could be cured with a shorter duration of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. However, modeling therapy duration has yet to be evaluated in recently infected individuals. The aim of this study was to retrospectively examine whether modeling can predict outcomes of six-week sofosbuvir (SOF) and weight-based ribavirin (R) therapy in individuals with recent HCV infection.
Modeling was used to estimate viral host parameters and to predict time to cure for 12 adults with recent HCV infection (<12 months of infection) who received six weeks of treatment with SOF + R.
Modeling results yielded a 100% negative predictive value for SOF + R treatment response in nine participants and suggested that a median of 13 [interquartile range: 8–16] weeks of therapy would be required for these patients to achieve cure. Modeling predicted cure after 5 weeks of therapy in the only modeled participant who achieved a sustained virological response. However, cure was also predicted for two participants who relapsed following treatment.
The modeling results confirm that longer than 6 weeks of SOF + R is needed to reach cure in individuals with recent HCV infection. Prospective real-time modeling under current potent DAA regimens is needed to validate the potential of response-guided therapy in the management of recent HCV infection.
•Modeling identifies chronic hepatitis C patients who were cured with a reduced duration of direct-acting antivirals (DAA).•Duration of DAA treatment has not been previously modeled in persons with recent (<12 months) hepatitis C infection.•We retrospectively modeled ultra-short (6-week) sofosbuvir + ribavirin therapy in recently infected persons.•Modeling might help identify persons with recent hepatitis C who are appropriate for ultra-short duration of DAA therapy.</abstract><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><pmid>32592829</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104862</doi><tpages>1</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3357-1817</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1557</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Direct-acting antivirals Hepatitis c virus Mathematical modeling Recent infection |
title | Modeling based response guided therapy in subjects with recent hepatitis C infection |
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