Evaluating the Reserve Bank’s forecasting performance

Conducts statistical tests on the full sample of the Reserve Bank’s economic forecasts, as well as on a 10-year rolling window. Considers a broad measure of performance across four distinct periods, and presents a qualitative assessment of relative forecasting performance over the COVID-19 pandemic...

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Published in:Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin 2022-12, Vol.85 (4), p.I-33
Main Authors: Bohm, Thomas, Sing, Marea
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bias
Central banks
Consumer Price Index
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Economic conditions
Economic forecasting
Economic forecasts
Employment
Evaluation
Forecasting
Forecasts and trends
Foreign exchange rates
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Housing prices
Inflation
Interest rates
Management
Monetary policy
Pandemics
Unemployment
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container_title Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
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creator Bohm, Thomas
Sing, Marea
description Conducts statistical tests on the full sample of the Reserve Bank’s economic forecasts, as well as on a 10-year rolling window. Considers a broad measure of performance across four distinct periods, and presents a qualitative assessment of relative forecasting performance over the COVID-19 pandemic period. Source: National Library of New Zealand Te Puna Matauranga o Aotearoa, licensed by the Department of Internal Affairs for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence.
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subjects Bias
Central banks
Consumer Price Index
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Economic conditions
Economic forecasting
Economic forecasts
Employment
Evaluation
Forecasting
Forecasts and trends
Foreign exchange rates
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Housing prices
Inflation
Interest rates
Management
Monetary policy
Pandemics
Unemployment
title Evaluating the Reserve Bank’s forecasting performance
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