Policy and the Dynamics of Political Competition

This paper proposes a model that takes the dynamic agent-based analysis of policy-driven party competition into a multiparty environment. In this, voters continually review party support and switch parties to increase their expectations; parties continually readapt policy positions to the shifting a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	The American political science review 2005-05, Vol.99 (2), p.263-281
Main Author:	LAVER, MICHAEL
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Adaptation Algorithms Competition Complex systems Decision making Dynamic models Ecological competition Environment Equilibrium Government (Administrative Body) Irish Irish politics Modeling Motion Opinion polls Opinions Partisanship Party politics Party realignment Party systems Political Change Political Parties Political science Politics Predators Public opinion polls Public Policy Search services Spatial models Standard deviation Studies Support Time series Trends Voters Voting Voting Behavior Voting behaviour
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Summary:	This paper proposes a model that takes the dynamic agent-based analysis of policy-driven party competition into a multiparty environment. In this, voters continually review party support and switch parties to increase their expectations; parties continually readapt policy positions to the shifting affiliations of voters. Different algorithms for party adaptation are explored, including “Aggregator” (adapt party policy to the ideal policy positions of party supporters), Hunter (repeat policy moves that were rewarded; otherwise make random moves), Predator (move party policy toward the policy position of the largest party), and “Sticker” (never change party policy). Strong trends in the behavior of parties using different methods of adaptation are explored. The model is then applied in a series of experiments to the dynamics of a real party system, described in a published opinion poll time series. This paper reports first steps toward endogenizing key features of the process, including the birth and death of parties, internal party decision rules, and voter ideal points.
ISSN:	0003-0554 1537-5943