Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing

The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are clo...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 1999-06, Vol.399 (6735), p.452-455
Main Authors: Shindell, Drew T, Miller, Ron L, Schmidt, Gavin A, Pandolfo, Lionel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmosphere
Climate
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Gases
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Meteorology
Simulation
Winter
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603
cites cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603
container_end_page 455
container_issue 6735
container_start_page 452
container_title Nature (London)
container_volume 399
creator Shindell, Drew T
Miller, Ron L
Schmidt, Gavin A
Pandolfo, Lionel
description The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation). Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise. The Arctic Oscillation trend is captured only in climate models that include a realistic representation of the stratosphere, while changes in ozone concentrations are not necessary to simulate the observed climate trends. The proper representation of stratospheric dynamics appears to be important to the attribution of climate change, at least on a broad regional scale.
doi_str_mv 10.1038/20905
format article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_27139676</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>42351763</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqF0U1PGzEQBmCrohKB8gu4WBXtbduxPf7IsYpaQErVA3BeGWc2bLTxBturin9f0yCQuEQ-zMGPXs0HY2cCvglQ7ruEOegPbCbQmgaNs0dsBiBdA06ZY3aS8wYAtLA4Y79v-u00-NKPkY8dTxQoFh7HVB4oRf63j4USD0O_9YV4SRRXmd8_8XUiig_jlKlZ-8y7MYU-rj-xj50fMp291FN29-vn7eKqWf65vF78WDYBnS5NR-TQSQ_OIa1WK92BRwdCCy1lENrWh0Z1QYNWJK0TklCauTIO7tGAOmVf97m7ND5OlEu77XOgYfCRak-ttELNjTUHoXDgjKj6ILQSa6Q-DFELidZV-Pkd3IxTinUtrQTEOqGyFX3Zo5DGnBN17S7VVaenVkD7fMz2_zGru3gJ8zn4oUs-hj6_YYeoFFZ2vmfRlynR6_8-5B_oFaOr</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>204475437</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing</title><source>Nature</source><creator>Shindell, Drew T ; Miller, Ron L ; Schmidt, Gavin A ; Pandolfo, Lionel</creator><creatorcontrib>Shindell, Drew T ; Miller, Ron L ; Schmidt, Gavin A ; Pandolfo, Lionel</creatorcontrib><description>The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation). Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise. The Arctic Oscillation trend is captured only in climate models that include a realistic representation of the stratosphere, while changes in ozone concentrations are not necessary to simulate the observed climate trends. The proper representation of stratospheric dynamics appears to be important to the attribution of climate change, at least on a broad regional scale.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0028-0836</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1476-4687</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/20905</identifier><identifier>CODEN: NATUAS</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing</publisher><subject>Atmosphere ; Climate ; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change ; Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Gases ; Global warming ; Greenhouse effect ; Meteorology ; Simulation ; Winter</subject><ispartof>Nature (London), 1999-06, Vol.399 (6735), p.452-455</ispartof><rights>1999 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Macmillan Journals Ltd. Jun 3, 1999</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>315,786,790,2744,27957,27958</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&amp;idt=1844334$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Shindell, Drew T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miller, Ron L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schmidt, Gavin A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pandolfo, Lionel</creatorcontrib><title>Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing</title><title>Nature (London)</title><description>The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation). Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise. The Arctic Oscillation trend is captured only in climate models that include a realistic representation of the stratosphere, while changes in ozone concentrations are not necessary to simulate the observed climate trends. The proper representation of stratospheric dynamics appears to be important to the attribution of climate change, at least on a broad regional scale.</description><subject>Atmosphere</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Gases</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Winter</subject><issn>0028-0836</issn><issn>1476-4687</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1999</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqF0U1PGzEQBmCrohKB8gu4WBXtbduxPf7IsYpaQErVA3BeGWc2bLTxBturin9f0yCQuEQ-zMGPXs0HY2cCvglQ7ruEOegPbCbQmgaNs0dsBiBdA06ZY3aS8wYAtLA4Y79v-u00-NKPkY8dTxQoFh7HVB4oRf63j4USD0O_9YV4SRRXmd8_8XUiig_jlKlZ-8y7MYU-rj-xj50fMp291FN29-vn7eKqWf65vF78WDYBnS5NR-TQSQ_OIa1WK92BRwdCCy1lENrWh0Z1QYNWJK0TklCauTIO7tGAOmVf97m7ND5OlEu77XOgYfCRak-ttELNjTUHoXDgjKj6ILQSa6Q-DFELidZV-Pkd3IxTinUtrQTEOqGyFX3Zo5DGnBN17S7VVaenVkD7fMz2_zGru3gJ8zn4oUs-hj6_YYeoFFZ2vmfRlynR6_8-5B_oFaOr</recordid><startdate>19990603</startdate><enddate>19990603</enddate><creator>Shindell, Drew T</creator><creator>Miller, Ron L</creator><creator>Schmidt, Gavin A</creator><creator>Pandolfo, Lionel</creator><general>Nature Publishing</general><general>Nature Publishing Group</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QP</scope><scope>7QR</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7TO</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88G</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2M</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PSYQQ</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>R05</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>S0X</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7TV</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>L7M</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19990603</creationdate><title>Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing</title><author>Shindell, Drew T ; Miller, Ron L ; Schmidt, Gavin A ; Pandolfo, Lionel</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1999</creationdate><topic>Atmosphere</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>External geophysics</topic><topic>Gases</topic><topic>Global warming</topic><topic>Greenhouse effect</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Winter</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Shindell, Drew T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miller, Ron L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schmidt, Gavin A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pandolfo, Lionel</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Calcium &amp; Calcified Tissue Abstracts</collection><collection>Chemoreception Abstracts</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Nucleic Acids Abstracts</collection><collection>Oncogenes and Growth Factors Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Biology Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Psychology Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science &amp; Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies &amp; Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural &amp; Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>eLibrary</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric &amp; Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health &amp; Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Materials Science Database</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Biological Sciences</collection><collection>Agriculture Science Database</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>PML(ProQuest Medical Library)</collection><collection>Psychology Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>ProQuest Science Journals</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies &amp; Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies &amp; Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric &amp; Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest One Psychology</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>University of Michigan</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>SIRS Editorial</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Pollution Abstracts</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><jtitle>Nature (London)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Shindell, Drew T</au><au>Miller, Ron L</au><au>Schmidt, Gavin A</au><au>Pandolfo, Lionel</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing</atitle><jtitle>Nature (London)</jtitle><date>1999-06-03</date><risdate>1999</risdate><volume>399</volume><issue>6735</issue><spage>452</spage><epage>455</epage><pages>452-455</pages><issn>0028-0836</issn><eissn>1476-4687</eissn><coden>NATUAS</coden><notes>ObjectType-Article-2</notes><notes>SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1</notes><notes>ObjectType-Feature-1</notes><notes>content type line 23</notes><abstract>The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation). Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise. The Arctic Oscillation trend is captured only in climate models that include a realistic representation of the stratosphere, while changes in ozone concentrations are not necessary to simulate the observed climate trends. The proper representation of stratospheric dynamics appears to be important to the attribution of climate change, at least on a broad regional scale.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing</pub><doi>10.1038/20905</doi><tpages>4</tpages></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0028-0836
ispartof Nature (London), 1999-06, Vol.399 (6735), p.452-455
issn 0028-0836
1476-4687
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_27139676
source Nature
subjects Atmosphere
Climate
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Gases
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Meteorology
Simulation
Winter
title Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-09-21T04%3A23%3A50IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Simulation%20of%20recent%20northern%20winter%20climate%20trends%20by%20greenhouse-gas%20forcing&rft.jtitle=Nature%20(London)&rft.au=Shindell,%20Drew%20T&rft.date=1999-06-03&rft.volume=399&rft.issue=6735&rft.spage=452&rft.epage=455&rft.pages=452-455&rft.issn=0028-0836&rft.eissn=1476-4687&rft.coden=NATUAS&rft_id=info:doi/10.1038/20905&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E42351763%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c485t-fee8482a0884eddd5f0a480151522c157575463fc5053e27812e42693680b4603%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=204475437&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true