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Modelling outcomes after paediatric brain injury with admission laboratory values: a machine-learning approach

Severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of mortality in children, but the accurate prediction of outcomes at the point of admission remains very challenging. Admission laboratory results are a promising potential source of prognostic data, but have not been widely explored in paediatr...

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Published in:Pediatric research 2019-11, Vol.86 (5), p.641-645
Main Authors: Kayhanian, Saeed, Young, Adam M H, Mangla, Chaitanya, Jalloh, Ibrahim, Fernandes, Helen M, Garnett, Matthew R, Hutchinson, Peter J, Agrawal, Shruti
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cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-2267beda39833ea10972363b1893eb6cb026754f150a18626022feffc89bec213
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container_title Pediatric research
container_volume 86
creator Kayhanian, Saeed
Young, Adam M H
Mangla, Chaitanya
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Agrawal, Shruti
description Severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of mortality in children, but the accurate prediction of outcomes at the point of admission remains very challenging. Admission laboratory results are a promising potential source of prognostic data, but have not been widely explored in paediatric cohorts. Herein, we use machine-learning methods to analyse 14 different serum parameters together and develop a prognostic model to predict 6-month outcomes in children with severe TBI. A retrospective review of patients admitted to Cambridge University Hospital's Paediatric Intensive Care Unit between 2009 and 2013 with a TBI. The data for 14 admission serum parameters were recorded. Logistic regression and a support vector machine (SVM) were trained with these data against dichotimised outcomes from the recorded 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale. Ninety-four patients were identified. Admission levels of lactate, H+, and glucose were identified as being the most informative of 6-month outcomes. Four different models were produced. The SVM using just the three most informative parameters was the best able to predict favourable outcomes at 6 months (sensitivity = 80%, specificity = 99%). Our results demonstrate the potential for highly accurate outcome prediction after severe paediatric TBI using admission laboratory data.
doi_str_mv 10.1038/s41390-019-0510-9
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subjects Brain Injuries - therapy
Child
Female
Humans
Machine Learning
Male
Medical prognosis
Medical tests
Patient Admission
Patient admissions
Pediatrics
Traumatic brain injury
Treatment Outcome
title Modelling outcomes after paediatric brain injury with admission laboratory values: a machine-learning approach
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