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Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA
Abstract In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2...
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| Published in: | Environmental Research Communications 2024-03, Vol.6 (3), p.31004 |
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| container_start_page | 31004 |
| container_title | Environmental Research Communications |
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| creator | Laszewski, Slade Jia, Shenyue Viner, Jessica Ho, Wesley Hoover, Brian Kim, Seung Hee Kafatos, Menas C |
| description | Abstract
In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93 |
| format | article |
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In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2515-7620</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2515-7620</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Bristol: IOP Publishing</publisher><subject>California ; Census ; Censuses ; climate change ; Demographics ; Demography ; Environmental risk ; Houses ; mann-kendall test ; Ownership ; Population growth ; population trends ; Real estate ; Risk ; wildfire risk ; Wildfires ; Wildland-urban interface</subject><ispartof>Environmental Research Communications, 2024-03, Vol.6 (3), p.31004</ispartof><rights>2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd</rights><rights>2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c400t-b89667f2e61a49bac7a65012062bcebf05c89ce8c1f6dde608f94fd26189a9d83</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-1603-6932 ; 0000-0003-2971-0447 ; 0009-0009-4695-7610 ; 0000-0002-5949-8996 ; 0000-0003-0628-529X</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2954261165?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>315,786,790,25783,27957,27958,37047,44625</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Laszewski, Slade</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jia, Shenyue</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viner, Jessica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ho, Wesley</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hoover, Brian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Seung Hee</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kafatos, Menas C</creatorcontrib><title>Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA</title><title>Environmental Research Communications</title><addtitle>ERC</addtitle><addtitle>Environ. Res. Commun</addtitle><description>Abstract
In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk.</description><subject>California</subject><subject>Census</subject><subject>Censuses</subject><subject>climate change</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Environmental risk</subject><subject>Houses</subject><subject>mann-kendall test</subject><subject>Ownership</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>population trends</subject><subject>Real estate</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>wildfire risk</subject><subject>Wildfires</subject><subject>Wildland-urban interface</subject><issn>2515-7620</issn><issn>2515-7620</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>PIMPY</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kUFv1DAQhSMEElXpnaMlJE5NO3YSJz5WK6CVKnGAHjhZE3u865UbBztbVK78cbwEFQ5wGY_Gb75n61XVaw4XHIbhUnS8q3sp4BKtQNU8q06eRs__6l9WZznvAUD0qgXenlQ_vhCm8MjmOB8CLj5OzOKCDBdmaMqHzJaEZmGBHiiwVCoGsmzZFcF9TMRminMghqWd4jcW_IOftsxPbOe3uwJ2PlE9pzgR-15KPl5tMHgX0-TxnN19unpVvXAYMp39Pk-ru_fvPm-u69uPH242V7e1aQGWehyUlL0TJDm2akTTo-yAC5BiNDQ66MygDA2GO2ktSRicap0Vkg8KlR2a0-pm5dqIez0nf4_pUUf0-tcgpq3GtHgTSBuk3tmxaQS6Yi5G0YwtgWi4FKbrsLDerKzyta8Hyovex0OayvO1UF1bTLnsigpWlUkx50TuyZWDPianj9HoYzR6Ta6svF1XfJz_MCkZLXWjoeEArZ6tK8Lzfwj_y_0Jf-mnag</recordid><startdate>20240301</startdate><enddate>20240301</enddate><creator>Laszewski, Slade</creator><creator>Jia, Shenyue</creator><creator>Viner, Jessica</creator><creator>Ho, Wesley</creator><creator>Hoover, Brian</creator><creator>Kim, Seung Hee</creator><creator>Kafatos, Menas C</creator><general>IOP Publishing</general><scope>O3W</scope><scope>TSCCA</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1603-6932</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2971-0447</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4695-7610</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5949-8996</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0628-529X</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20240301</creationdate><title>Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA</title><author>Laszewski, Slade ; Jia, Shenyue ; Viner, Jessica ; Ho, Wesley ; Hoover, Brian ; Kim, Seung Hee ; Kafatos, Menas C</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c400t-b89667f2e61a49bac7a65012062bcebf05c89ce8c1f6dde608f94fd26189a9d83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>California</topic><topic>Census</topic><topic>Censuses</topic><topic>climate change</topic><topic>Demographics</topic><topic>Demography</topic><topic>Environmental risk</topic><topic>Houses</topic><topic>mann-kendall test</topic><topic>Ownership</topic><topic>Population growth</topic><topic>population trends</topic><topic>Real estate</topic><topic>Risk</topic><topic>wildfire risk</topic><topic>Wildfires</topic><topic>Wildland-urban interface</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Laszewski, Slade</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jia, Shenyue</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viner, Jessica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ho, Wesley</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hoover, Brian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Seung Hee</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kafatos, Menas C</creatorcontrib><collection>Open Access: IOP Publishing Free Content</collection><collection>IOPscience (Open Access)</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>Environmental Research Communications</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Laszewski, Slade</au><au>Jia, Shenyue</au><au>Viner, Jessica</au><au>Ho, Wesley</au><au>Hoover, Brian</au><au>Kim, Seung Hee</au><au>Kafatos, Menas C</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA</atitle><jtitle>Environmental Research Communications</jtitle><stitle>ERC</stitle><addtitle>Environ. Res. Commun</addtitle><date>2024-03-01</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>6</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>31004</spage><pages>31004-</pages><issn>2515-7620</issn><eissn>2515-7620</eissn><notes>ERC-101735.R2</notes><abstract>Abstract
In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk.</abstract><cop>Bristol</cop><pub>IOP Publishing</pub><doi>10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93</doi><tpages>11</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1603-6932</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2971-0447</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4695-7610</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5949-8996</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0628-529X</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | California Census Censuses climate change Demographics Demography Environmental risk Houses mann-kendall test Ownership Population growth population trends Real estate Risk wildfire risk Wildfires Wildland-urban interface |
| title | Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA |
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