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Probabilistic risk and severity analysis of power systems with high penetration of photovoltaics
The main challenge of integrating high photovoltaic (PV) systems in power grids is managing their associated uncertainty which poses significant risks on the system stability and reliability. A probabilistic approach is well-suited to explore and analyse the impact of these intermittencies and uncer...
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| Published in: | Solar energy 2021-12, Vol.230, p.1156-1164 |
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| creator | Kumar, Dhivya Sampath Quan, Hao Wen, Koh Yong Srinivasan, Dipti |
| description | The main challenge of integrating high photovoltaic (PV) systems in power grids is managing their associated uncertainty which poses significant risks on the system stability and reliability. A probabilistic approach is well-suited to explore and analyse the impact of these intermittencies and uncertainties on power system operation. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk-based assessment (PRBA) framework which is suitable for power systems with high penetration of renewables such as PVs. Conventional analytical security assessment approaches typically examine the behaviour of electromechanical modes under varying operation scenarios in the power grid and often focus only on a few specific modes of interest. However, this may impose a small-disturbance stability risk of missing out critical information from other unobserved modes. The methodology proposed in this paper aims to capture the behaviours of all critical modes through modal analysis and risk matrices in order to quantify the stability risks associated with high PV-integrated power networks. Feasibility of the proposed framework is tested on a modified version of the 39-bus New England test network. Probabilistic risk-based assessment is performed and the severities measured are assessed using a sensitivity matrix to evaluate the overall small-signal instability risks associated with various PV penetration levels.
•Probabilistic stability assessment of power systems with PVs is performed.•Stability assessment is carried out considering PV variability and uncertainty.•Historical data sets are used for stochastic PV modelling and Monte-Carlo for scenario generation.•A risk matrix based on probability and severity of an event is developed. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.solener.2021.10.080 |
| format | article |
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•Probabilistic stability assessment of power systems with PVs is performed.•Stability assessment is carried out considering PV variability and uncertainty.•Historical data sets are used for stochastic PV modelling and Monte-Carlo for scenario generation.•A risk matrix based on probability and severity of an event is developed.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0038-092X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1471-1257</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2021.10.080</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Electromechanical modes ; Impact analysis ; Modal analysis ; Penetration ; Photovoltaic ; Photovoltaic cells ; Photovoltaics ; Power system ; Probabilistic risk-assessment ; Reliability analysis ; Risk analysis ; Risk assessment ; Security ; Sensitivity analysis ; Small-signal stability ; Solar energy ; Stability analysis ; Systems stability ; Uncertainties ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>Solar energy, 2021-12, Vol.230, p.1156-1164</ispartof><rights>2021 International Solar Energy Society</rights><rights>Copyright Pergamon Press Inc. Dec 2021</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-79c59eed07b664bf95db37281a2058a6b22d07f2e1c140762c152c3fb1d8c4c23</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-79c59eed07b664bf95db37281a2058a6b22d07f2e1c140762c152c3fb1d8c4c23</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3675-0466</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>315,786,790,27957,27958</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Kumar, Dhivya Sampath</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quan, Hao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wen, Koh Yong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Srinivasan, Dipti</creatorcontrib><title>Probabilistic risk and severity analysis of power systems with high penetration of photovoltaics</title><title>Solar energy</title><description>The main challenge of integrating high photovoltaic (PV) systems in power grids is managing their associated uncertainty which poses significant risks on the system stability and reliability. A probabilistic approach is well-suited to explore and analyse the impact of these intermittencies and uncertainties on power system operation. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk-based assessment (PRBA) framework which is suitable for power systems with high penetration of renewables such as PVs. Conventional analytical security assessment approaches typically examine the behaviour of electromechanical modes under varying operation scenarios in the power grid and often focus only on a few specific modes of interest. However, this may impose a small-disturbance stability risk of missing out critical information from other unobserved modes. The methodology proposed in this paper aims to capture the behaviours of all critical modes through modal analysis and risk matrices in order to quantify the stability risks associated with high PV-integrated power networks. Feasibility of the proposed framework is tested on a modified version of the 39-bus New England test network. Probabilistic risk-based assessment is performed and the severities measured are assessed using a sensitivity matrix to evaluate the overall small-signal instability risks associated with various PV penetration levels.
•Probabilistic stability assessment of power systems with PVs is performed.•Stability assessment is carried out considering PV variability and uncertainty.•Historical data sets are used for stochastic PV modelling and Monte-Carlo for scenario generation.•A risk matrix based on probability and severity of an event is developed.</description><subject>Electromechanical modes</subject><subject>Impact analysis</subject><subject>Modal analysis</subject><subject>Penetration</subject><subject>Photovoltaic</subject><subject>Photovoltaic cells</subject><subject>Photovoltaics</subject><subject>Power system</subject><subject>Probabilistic risk-assessment</subject><subject>Reliability analysis</subject><subject>Risk analysis</subject><subject>Risk assessment</subject><subject>Security</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Small-signal stability</subject><subject>Solar energy</subject><subject>Stability analysis</subject><subject>Systems stability</subject><subject>Uncertainties</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0038-092X</issn><issn>1471-1257</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFUEtPwzAMjhBIjMFPQIrEuSVOH2lPCE28pElwAIlbSNOUZnTLiMOm_nsytjsny_4etj9CLoGlwKC8XqToBrMyPuWMQ5ylrGJHZAK5gAR4IY7JhLGsSljN30_JGeKCMRBQiQn5ePGuUY0dLAarqbf4RdWqpWg2xtswxkYNI1qkrqNrtzWe4ojBLJFubehpbz97uo7Lg1fButUfrXfBbdwQlNV4Tk46NaC5ONQpebu_e509JvPnh6fZ7TzRWSZCImpd1Ma0TDRlmTddXbRNJngFirOiUmXDecQ6bkBDzkTJNRRcZ10DbaVzzbMpudr7rr37_jEY5ML9-Hg8Sl5yKCpRl3VkFXuW9g7Rm06uvV0qP0pgchemXMhDmHIX5m4cw4y6m73OxBc2NqKorVlp01pvdJCts_84_AJoWIIc</recordid><startdate>202112</startdate><enddate>202112</enddate><creator>Kumar, Dhivya Sampath</creator><creator>Quan, Hao</creator><creator>Wen, Koh Yong</creator><creator>Srinivasan, Dipti</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Pergamon Press Inc</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SP</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3675-0466</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202112</creationdate><title>Probabilistic risk and severity analysis of power systems with high penetration of photovoltaics</title><author>Kumar, Dhivya Sampath ; Quan, Hao ; Wen, Koh Yong ; Srinivasan, Dipti</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-79c59eed07b664bf95db37281a2058a6b22d07f2e1c140762c152c3fb1d8c4c23</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Electromechanical modes</topic><topic>Impact analysis</topic><topic>Modal analysis</topic><topic>Penetration</topic><topic>Photovoltaic</topic><topic>Photovoltaic cells</topic><topic>Photovoltaics</topic><topic>Power system</topic><topic>Probabilistic risk-assessment</topic><topic>Reliability analysis</topic><topic>Risk analysis</topic><topic>Risk assessment</topic><topic>Security</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Small-signal stability</topic><topic>Solar energy</topic><topic>Stability analysis</topic><topic>Systems stability</topic><topic>Uncertainties</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Kumar, Dhivya Sampath</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quan, Hao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wen, Koh Yong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Srinivasan, Dipti</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Electronics & Communications Abstracts</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Solar energy</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Kumar, Dhivya Sampath</au><au>Quan, Hao</au><au>Wen, Koh Yong</au><au>Srinivasan, Dipti</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Probabilistic risk and severity analysis of power systems with high penetration of photovoltaics</atitle><jtitle>Solar energy</jtitle><date>2021-12</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>230</volume><spage>1156</spage><epage>1164</epage><pages>1156-1164</pages><issn>0038-092X</issn><eissn>1471-1257</eissn><abstract>The main challenge of integrating high photovoltaic (PV) systems in power grids is managing their associated uncertainty which poses significant risks on the system stability and reliability. A probabilistic approach is well-suited to explore and analyse the impact of these intermittencies and uncertainties on power system operation. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk-based assessment (PRBA) framework which is suitable for power systems with high penetration of renewables such as PVs. Conventional analytical security assessment approaches typically examine the behaviour of electromechanical modes under varying operation scenarios in the power grid and often focus only on a few specific modes of interest. However, this may impose a small-disturbance stability risk of missing out critical information from other unobserved modes. The methodology proposed in this paper aims to capture the behaviours of all critical modes through modal analysis and risk matrices in order to quantify the stability risks associated with high PV-integrated power networks. Feasibility of the proposed framework is tested on a modified version of the 39-bus New England test network. Probabilistic risk-based assessment is performed and the severities measured are assessed using a sensitivity matrix to evaluate the overall small-signal instability risks associated with various PV penetration levels.
•Probabilistic stability assessment of power systems with PVs is performed.•Stability assessment is carried out considering PV variability and uncertainty.•Historical data sets are used for stochastic PV modelling and Monte-Carlo for scenario generation.•A risk matrix based on probability and severity of an event is developed.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><doi>10.1016/j.solener.2021.10.080</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3675-0466</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Solar energy, 2021-12, Vol.230, p.1156-1164 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | ScienceDirect Journals |
| subjects | Electromechanical modes Impact analysis Modal analysis Penetration Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells Photovoltaics Power system Probabilistic risk-assessment Reliability analysis Risk analysis Risk assessment Security Sensitivity analysis Small-signal stability Solar energy Stability analysis Systems stability Uncertainties Uncertainty |
| title | Probabilistic risk and severity analysis of power systems with high penetration of photovoltaics |
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