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Large-scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models
Within the Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region the zonal component of the low‐level winds tends to weaken and reverse from east to west during the peak monsoon season, which also marks a peak in rainfall. This study examines how well climate models can simulate these phenomena prior to evaluating t...
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Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2012-02, Vol.117 (D4), p.n/a |
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creator | Smith, Ian N. Moise, Aurel F. Colman, Robert A. |
description | Within the Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region the zonal component of the low‐level winds tends to weaken and reverse from east to west during the peak monsoon season, which also marks a peak in rainfall. This study examines how well climate models can simulate these phenomena prior to evaluating their projections for later this century. While a seasonal wind reversal or weakening appears to be reasonably well simulated by most models over much of the WPM, the relationships between large‐scale average winds and rainfall are not always well simulated. This allows us to discriminate among the models in order to see if this affects the projections. However, it so happens that this has relatively little effect, and the predominant signal is for an increase in rainfall with a weakening or negligible change to the low‐level monsoon winds. These results indicate that the WPM climate will respond more to global scale drivers such as an increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a weakening of the global circulation, rather than to more regional changes such as an increase in the land/ocean temperature contrast.
Key Points
The climate of the western Pacific is monsoon‐dominated
Model projections favor increased rainfall, but little change to the winds
Model performance at simulating the monsoon does not alter the projections |
doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2011JD016667 |
format | article |
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Key Points
The climate of the western Pacific is monsoon‐dominated
Model projections favor increased rainfall, but little change to the winds
Model performance at simulating the monsoon does not alter the projections</description><identifier>ISSN: 0148-0227</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 2169-897X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2156-2202</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2169-8996</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016667</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington, DC: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Atmospheric sciences ; Climate change ; Earth ; Earth sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; Geophysics ; Hydrology ; Meteorology ; monsoon ; Precipitation ; rainfall ; Regions ; western Pacific ; winds</subject><ispartof>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012-02, Vol.117 (D4), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>Published in 2012 by the American Geophysical Union</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3750-23a31174ac62afbb63023e0f42abd29ebd6c03952cc5380c06cd50e8f614a3b33</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3750-23a31174ac62afbb63023e0f42abd29ebd6c03952cc5380c06cd50e8f614a3b33</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2011JD016667$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2011JD016667$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>315,786,790,11541,27957,27958,46503,46927,50923,51032</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=25982480$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Smith, Ian N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moise, Aurel F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Colman, Robert A.</creatorcontrib><title>Large-scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models</title><title>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres</title><addtitle>J. Geophys. Res</addtitle><description>Within the Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region the zonal component of the low‐level winds tends to weaken and reverse from east to west during the peak monsoon season, which also marks a peak in rainfall. This study examines how well climate models can simulate these phenomena prior to evaluating their projections for later this century. While a seasonal wind reversal or weakening appears to be reasonably well simulated by most models over much of the WPM, the relationships between large‐scale average winds and rainfall are not always well simulated. This allows us to discriminate among the models in order to see if this affects the projections. However, it so happens that this has relatively little effect, and the predominant signal is for an increase in rainfall with a weakening or negligible change to the low‐level monsoon winds. These results indicate that the WPM climate will respond more to global scale drivers such as an increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a weakening of the global circulation, rather than to more regional changes such as an increase in the land/ocean temperature contrast.
Key Points
The climate of the western Pacific is monsoon‐dominated
Model projections favor increased rainfall, but little change to the winds
Model performance at simulating the monsoon does not alter the projections</description><subject>Atmospheric sciences</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Earth</subject><subject>Earth sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Geophysics</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>monsoon</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>rainfall</subject><subject>Regions</subject><subject>western Pacific</subject><subject>winds</subject><issn>0148-0227</issn><issn>2169-897X</issn><issn>2156-2202</issn><issn>2169-8996</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2012</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kE1v1DAQhi0EEqt2b_wAS4gboeNx7CRHaGHbEgFCfOzNcpwJeJsmi53Vsv8eL1lVnJjLXJ7nndHL2DMBrwRgdYEgxO0VCK118YgtUCidIQI-ZgsQeZkBYvGULWPcQJpc6RzEgt3VNvygLDrbE3c-uF1vJz8OvCM77QJF7gc-_SQ-hXHrE8X3FCcKA_9kne-843Zoj4APPNA2CTRMc0ISXe_v7UT8fmypj-fsSWf7SMvTPmNf3739cnmd1R9XN5ev68zJQkGG0kohitw6jbZrGi0BJUGXo21arKhptQNZKXROyRIcaNcqoLLTIreykfKMPZ9zt2H8tUvvms24C0M6aVJTILEqSkjUy5lyYYwxUGe2IX0bDgk6cpX5t9GEvziF2mNZXbCD8_HBQVWVmP-NlTO39z0d_ptpblefr0ShqqOVzZZP5f5-sGy4M-l2ocz3Dyvzbb1-U9er90bLP0k5k7I</recordid><startdate>20120227</startdate><enddate>20120227</enddate><creator>Smith, Ian N.</creator><creator>Moise, Aurel F.</creator><creator>Colman, Robert A.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>American Geophysical Union</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20120227</creationdate><title>Large-scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models</title><author>Smith, Ian N. ; Moise, Aurel F. ; Colman, Robert A.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3750-23a31174ac62afbb63023e0f42abd29ebd6c03952cc5380c06cd50e8f614a3b33</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>Atmospheric sciences</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Earth</topic><topic>Earth sciences</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>Geophysics</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>monsoon</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>rainfall</topic><topic>Regions</topic><topic>western Pacific</topic><topic>winds</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Smith, Ian N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moise, Aurel F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Colman, Robert A.</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database (1962 - current)</collection><collection>ProQuest Agricultural & Environmental Science</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection (Proquest) (PQ_SDU_P3)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>ProQuest research library</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><jtitle>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Smith, Ian N.</au><au>Moise, Aurel F.</au><au>Colman, Robert A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Large-scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models</atitle><jtitle>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres</jtitle><addtitle>J. Geophys. Res</addtitle><date>2012-02-27</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>117</volume><issue>D4</issue><epage>n/a</epage><issn>0148-0227</issn><issn>2169-897X</issn><eissn>2156-2202</eissn><eissn>2169-8996</eissn><notes>ark:/67375/WNG-VXXBLLGK-6</notes><notes>ArticleID:2011JD016667</notes><notes>istex:CA1CCE7D7E78BEA7A57B37B5AF035CE83E094010</notes><notes>Tab-delimited Table 1.Tab-delimited Table 2.</notes><abstract>Within the Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region the zonal component of the low‐level winds tends to weaken and reverse from east to west during the peak monsoon season, which also marks a peak in rainfall. This study examines how well climate models can simulate these phenomena prior to evaluating their projections for later this century. While a seasonal wind reversal or weakening appears to be reasonably well simulated by most models over much of the WPM, the relationships between large‐scale average winds and rainfall are not always well simulated. This allows us to discriminate among the models in order to see if this affects the projections. However, it so happens that this has relatively little effect, and the predominant signal is for an increase in rainfall with a weakening or negligible change to the low‐level monsoon winds. These results indicate that the WPM climate will respond more to global scale drivers such as an increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a weakening of the global circulation, rather than to more regional changes such as an increase in the land/ocean temperature contrast.
Key Points
The climate of the western Pacific is monsoon‐dominated
Model projections favor increased rainfall, but little change to the winds
Model performance at simulating the monsoon does not alter the projections</abstract><cop>Washington, DC</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1029/2011JD016667</doi><tpages>15</tpages></addata></record> |
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source | Wiley-Blackwell Journals; Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Archive |
subjects | Atmospheric sciences Climate change Earth Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Geophysics Hydrology Meteorology monsoon Precipitation rainfall Regions western Pacific winds |
title | Large-scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models |
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