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Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary
Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available....
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Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2012-07, Vol.109 (31), p.12414-12419 |
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container_end_page | 12419 |
container_issue | 31 |
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container_title | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS |
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creator | Zammit-Mangion, Andrew Dewar, Michael Kadirkamanathan, Visakan Sanguinetti, Guido |
description | Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. Using ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, we provide a predictive framework able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. We demonstrate our methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary. Our results show that the approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from previous years. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1073/pnas.1203177109 |
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Fienberg, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, and approved June 8, 2012 (received for review February 25, 2012)</notes><abstract>Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. Using ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, we provide a predictive framework able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. We demonstrate our methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary. Our results show that the approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from previous years.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>National Academy of Sciences</pub><pmid>22802667</pmid><doi>10.1073/pnas.1203177109</doi><tpages>6</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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language | eng |
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source | JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection; PubMed Central |
subjects | Afghan Campaign 2001 Covariance Data models Datasets Dynamic modeling Ecological modeling ecology Ecology - history History, 21st Century Humans Inference Mathematical functions Modeling Models, Theoretical Physical Sciences prediction Social Sciences Statistics War |
title | Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary |
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